Declining Indicators: Caution, As Investors Expect Comfort From Q2 Numbers


Post Views: 229 Market Update July 4 The volatility on the floor Nigerian Stock Exchange continued as the indices inched up in the early hours of Tues...

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Market Update July 4

The volatility on the floor Nigerian Stock Exchange continued as the indices inched up in the early hours of Tuesday’s trading before closing lower to end the day, as investors await Q2 numbers, amidst continued profit taking. It is important to note the rate of demand for equities as revealed by the trading volume index at 0.44 on a buying position of 1%, while selling was 99% of the total volume traded. This signaled negative sentiments ahead of the earnings reporting season. However, the investing public should not panic as opportunity for reversal is high if the trend does not breakdown the next support level of 32,000 and below the blue trend line.
As the factors that brought the market high in June is still partially intact as traders and investors are looking forward to see the Q2 numbers confirming the positive economic data and the recovery so far. Seeing that CBN had successful managed foreign exchange measures to stabilise the naira and narrow the wide gap between the official and parallel markets’ exchange rates. However, since April, the apex bank had introduced forex window for investors and exporters, which allows traders to swap naira for dollars at market-determined rates, it seems to have become a historical date in the annals of forex management in the country, despite the up and down movement of the oil price that is the nation major source of revenue.
Stock markets around the world were mixed to close lower as investors increasing tensions on the Korean peninsula supported safe-harbors including the yen, bonds and gold. A holiday in the United States and a dearth of major data kept activity muted, but the expectation of Federal Reserve’s last meeting proceedings could add some impetus to the market.
The composite NSE All-Share index shed 359.60 basis points yesterday to close at 32,410.20 after opening at 32,769.80 points, representing a 1.10% decline on average traded volume of the market, but higher than the previous day trade volume. . Similarly, market capitalisation for the day fell by N162.00 to close at N11.17 trillion from an opening value of N11.33 trillion, representing 1.43% value decline as Ashaka Cement was delisted yesterday.
Price depreciation in the share of UBA, Zenith Bank, Flourmills, NB, Guranrty Trust Bank, Guiness, Conoil, Julius Berger, Stanbic IBTC , Oando and FBNH impacted negatively on the All-Share index, reducing its year-to-date return to 20.60%, just as market capitalisation for the same period stood at N1.92tr, representing a 20.79% gain above the year’s opening value.
Market breadth remained negative as the number of decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 33:10 on a high volume of trade to continue three day bear run.
Market activities in terms of volume and value were up by 27.00% and 12.19% respectively to 206.18 million shares from previous day’s 162.35 million and N1.70 billion, compared to the previous days of N1.52 billion.
Transactions in the shares of FIDELITY BANK, ACCESS BANK, FBNH, STERLING BANK and TRANSCORP topped the volume chart to close the day’s trade.
At the end of the day trading Redstar Express topped the advancers’ log with its share price gaining 10.14% to close at N5.32 each, on impressive Q4 numbers and 40 kobo dividend. It was followed by Honey well Flour with 9.84% gain to close at N2.12 per share, on impressive Q4 numbers and 6 kobo dividend ahead of it Q1 numbers.
On the flipside, Neminth led the decliners’ log, after dropping 8.54% to close at N0.75 on profit taking, ahead of UBA 5.75% to close at N8.20 each on profit booking from the recent rally.
The management of Guinness Nigeria Plc got SEC and NSE approval for right issue of N59.7 billion. The first Q2 result was released by Infinity Trust Microfinaice while ETI filed for late releasing of it Q2 audited report.

As the market opens this morning, expect mixed performance as more company release their Q2 earnings reports with Infinity Trust released of its numbers to kick start the earnings reporting season. Investors should not panic on the any pullbacks if they have taken position based on strong numbers and future prospects of any stock. But quickly bail out when your expectations are not met when the actual figure hit the market to cut loss.
Again, we advise that investors allow numbers to guide their decisions to reposition for the rest of the year’s trading activities, especially now that prices of stocks are looking up ahead of recovery economic fundamentals, if the numbers will support the price reversal or continuation.
It is time to use your technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position.
Once more, at the risk of repeating oneself, we must reiterate that industry potential is very important when picking a stock, because there are factors that are sector-specific and would naturally impact positively or negatively on companies operating within such an industry, especially now that the economy is recovering. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in this up market or pullback sign up for investdata buy & sell signal setup by calling 08032055467.

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2. Outlook and Implications of the 2017 Budget & Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) on Nigeria’s Stock Market and Economy- Abiola Rasaq, Group Head Investor Relations, UBA
3. A Strategic Outlook; The Fusion of Fundamental & Technical Analysis- Ambrose Omordion, Chief Research Officer Investdata Consulting Ltd
4. Understanding Market Timing to Manage Risk, Using Technical Analysis – Mr. Abdul-Rasheed Momoh, Head, Capital Markets, TRW Stockbrokers Limited
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