Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices dropped on Friday, with Brent crude falling 0.6% to $80.79 and WTI down 1% to $77.88.
Despite the dip, both benchmarks managed to secure their fourth straight weekly gain. Concerns over supply disruptions from U.S. sanctions on Russian energy helped support prices, while factors like reduced refinery activity in China and a Yemen ceasefire kept gains in check. A cold front in the U.S. is expected to push up heating oil demand next week.
At 5.4% Growth, China’s Q4 Economy Exceed Forecasts, Hit Annual Target
China’s economy grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing expectations and reaching the government’s annual growth target of 5%. This growth, the fastest since Q2 2023, was supported by stimulus measures. Full-year GDP rose by 5.0%, in line with the target. Quarter-on-quarter growth for October-December was 1.6%, matching forecasts. Efforts to revitalize growth through stimulus have been key, as external challenges loom.
IMF Increases Global Growth Outlook, Warns Against Protectionism
The IMF has raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.3%, buoyed by stronger U.S. growth, while revising down projections for Europe. It predicts inflation will fall to 4.2% in 2025. The IMF warned that protectionist measures, including tariffs, could harm global trade and economic stability. It also expressed concerns over U.S. digital currency deregulation and its potential risks. Growth forecasts for the U.S. were upgraded to 2.7%, while Europe’s outlook was downgraded due to political and economic uncertainty.
Botswana’s Economy To Grow 3-4% In 2025 After 2024 Contraction
Botswana’s economy is projected to grow by 3-4% in 2025, following a 3.3% contraction in 2024, driven by a recovery in global diamond markets. The economy’s decline in 2024 exceeded expectations, with diamond sales remaining weak. However, mineral revenue recovery is expected to reduce the budget deficit to 3.6% of GDP in 2025/26, down from 6.75% in the current fiscal year. The national budget for 2025/26 will be presented in February.
Nigerian Governors Reject VAT Raise, Seek Inclusive Tax Reforms
The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) has opposed any VAT rate hike, urging tax reforms that prioritize citizens’ welfare. In a meeting with the Presidential Tax Reform Committee, the governors emphasized the need to maintain VAT exemptions for essential goods and agricultural products.
The NGF proposed a revised VAT-sharing formula: 50% based on equality, 30% on derivation, and 20% on population. They also called for the removal of terminal clauses for specific agencies in the ongoing tax reform bills. Several governors had previously voiced opposition to the progressive VAT increases outlined in the bills.
