By George Pavel

Crude oil futures inched up, recovering some of the losses from the previous session due to ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in Eastern Europe. Despite Russian President Putin’s conditional support for a ceasefire, the likelihood of a quick resolution remains low, suggesting that Russian oil supplies could remain restricted. This uncertainty could provide a support cushion for prices, preventing further declines and potentially pushing them higher if the conflict persists.

However, concerns over global demand weighed on the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its surplus forecast for 2025. The organization sees a surplus of 600,000 barrels per day, citing higher supply and slower demand. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s new sanctions on Iranian oil added another layer of volatility. A meaningful reduction in Iranian exports could tighten global oil supply, providing some support for prices.

Pavel is General Manager at Naga.com Middle East