Global markets are underestimating the threat of a sweeping new wave of tariffs from President Trump—despite clear warnings and an accelerating timeline that could reshape global trade flows within days.
Trump on Monday confirmed that countries without bilateral trade agreements with the United States will soon face universal tariffs in the range of 15 to 20%.
Over 200 nations are expected to be notified of the new regime imminently. The US President is calling it a “world tariff” and has made clear it will apply broadly and quickly.
“Investors are behaving as if this is just more background noise,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.
“But this isn’t noise. This is a fundamental change in global trade architecture, and the market is barely blinking.”
The White House has already moved forward on several fronts. A 15% tariff deal has been signed with the EU alongside massive investment and energy purchase pledges. Japan has locked in a $550 billion trade pact.
However, for the rest of the world, particularly nations like India, Canada, and Brazil, time is running out. Trump’s deadline for new deals is this Friday. Those left without agreements will be subject to higher blanket rates as early as next week.
“The most astonishing part isn’t the policy shift itself. It’s the market’s reaction—or lack of one,” says the deVere Group chief executive.
“Equities remain buoyant. Volatility is low. It’s as though investors have convinced themselves this is just another bluff. That assumption looks dangerously optimistic.”
Trump’s rationale is straightforward: fewer deals, more tariffs, simpler rules. But the economic impact is already showing up in the data. US growth has cooled, GDP expansion slowed to just over 1% in the first half of the year, and estimates for full-year performance are edging lower. The average effective tariff rate has climbed steeply and is set to rise again.
“Tariffs are functioning like a shadow tax on the economy,” says Nigel Green. “They distort pricing, suppress trade volumes, and increase friction across supply chains. This is not a theoretical risk; it’s real, and it’s measurable.”
Yet despite this, the prevailing market view remains that the inflationary effects are temporary and the growth drag manageable.
While inflation has moved more gradually than some expected, the second-order effects—reduced investment, weaker consumer sentiment, and declining trade volumes—are beginning to bite.
“Too many investors are still focused on short-term disinflation and assuming that tariffs are just noise in the system. That’s a mistake,” explains Nigel Green.
“These are structural shifts in the way global trade is priced and governed. It’ll take time to filter through, but the direction is already clear.”
Markets can absorb a lot of noise, Nigel Green says, but they don’t cope well with declining growth and rising unemployment, which is exactly the mix these tariffs could deliver.
What’s different this time is the scale and scope. Trump is no longer targeting a handful of adversaries. He’s applying pressure globally. His argument is that the US can no longer manage hundreds of separate deals and that tariffs are now the baseline for doing business.
“The world’s largest economy is shifting to a tariff-first model, which deserves a much more serious response from investors.”
With the deadline for new deals just days away and further retaliatory measures likely from affected countries, the risks are stacking up. Yet for now at least, markets remain calm.
“It’s time for investors to reassess their assumptions, and seek advice, because the ground under their feet is moving faster than they may be thinking,” concludes the deVere CEO.
