Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil Prices Climb on Russia Supply Risks, Fed Rate Cut Hopesm new U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries outweighed OPEC+ output increases. Brent closed at $68.80 and WTI at $64.80. Market sentiment also improved after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible September rate cut, though tariff concerns remain a drag on demand outlook.
German Business Sentiment Hits 15-Month High But Outlook Remains Fragile
German business morale rose unexpectedly in August, with the Ifo business climate index climbing to 89.0, its strongest level since May 2023. The increase was driven by improved expectations, though firms rated current conditions slightly worse. Analysts cautioned that the economy remains weak, with GDP shrinking 0.3% in Q2 and only minimal growth expected in Q3. Export expectations have declined following new EU-U.S. trade tariffs, but ECB rate cuts and planned government spending could support a modest recovery.
Singapore Inflation Slows in July, Undershoots Forecasts
Singapore’s consumer price growth eased in July, with core inflation—excluding private road transport and accommodation—rising 0.5% year-on-year, below economists’ forecast of 0.6%, official data showed on Monday. The softer reading points to a gradual cooling of price pressures.
Headline inflation also slowed to 0.6%, undershooting the 0.7% forecast. The figures suggest consumer prices are stabilizing faster than expected, raising hopes that inflationary pressures will stay contained in the coming months.
Egypt Likely To Ease Interest Rates As Price Pressures Subside
Egypt’s central bank is expected to cut key rates by 100 basis points at its August 28 policy meeting, a Reuters poll revealed. Economists anticipate the deposit rate will fall to 23% and the lending rate to 24%, as easing inflation and currency stability create space for growth support.
Annual inflation dropped to 13.9% in July from 38% last year, helped by falling food prices and government measures to stabilize costs. With prior IMF-backed reforms and earlier rate reductions already in place, analysts see room for further monetary easing in the months ahead.
Nigerian Crude Rises on Supply Concerns, India Demand
Nigerian Bonny Light crude climbed to about $70 per barrel on Monday, supported by Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil facilities, expectations of a U.S. rate cut, and stronger demand from India, which bought two million barrels for September–October. Nigeria’s output averaged 1.5 million barrels per day in July, exceeding its OPEC+ quota for a second month, while the Dangote Refinery prepares to source all crude locally. Brent rose to $68 and WTI to $63.81, though analysts warn of possible oversupply as OPEC+ boosts production and peace talks raise hopes of eased Russian sanctions.
