Bitcoin will rebound if the Federal Reserve cuts rates at their next meeting, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.
The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes ahead of the US central bank’s meeting 9-10 December and as global crypto markets are being shaken by one of the sharpest retracements of the year, with Bitcoin falling from highs above $120,000 to levels near $80,000 in a matter of weeks.
He says: “The scale of this pullback is the market’s response to uncertainty, not a collapse in underlying demand. Many investors have been reducing exposure because they lack clarity on the Federal Reserve’s next move, among other reasons. Once that clarity arrives, positioning will likely shift quickly.”
He emphasises that this correction is materially different from previous drawdowns. “The fall from $120,000 has eliminated layers of leverage that were built into the rally.
“More than $19 billion in long positions have already been liquidated. The market today is structurally cleaner than it was at the peak. This matters because Bitcoin’s ability to recover depends on what remains after forced selling clears.”
Nigel Green argues that Bitcoin’s behaviour over the past month reinforces a broader macro truth: liquidity is the dominant force in asset pricing.
“When liquidity contracts, even high-quality risk assets come under pressure. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin is one of the first beneficiaries. A 25-basis-point cut in December would shift financial conditions pretty much immediately.”
He notes that the dollar’s trajectory is central to what happens next. “Lower rates weaken the dollar and reduce real yields.
“The combination pushes global capital toward assets with long-duration payoff profiles. Bitcoin sits firmly in that category. Investors respond quickly when the dollar softens because they reassess the opportunity cost of holding cash.”
For institutional investors, the Federal Reserve’s communication will be as important as the rate move itself. “Forward guidance will determine how markets price the entire curve. Should policymakers indicate that further adjustments remain possible in 2026, then the impact will extend far beyond the December meeting. Investors would reposition across risk assets, and Bitcoin could be expected to capture a meaningful share of that rotation.”
Nigel Green says the recent volatility must be viewed in the context of a fragile global environment.
“Equity markets have retreated, data releases in the US were disrupted earlier in the autumn, and geopolitical tensions remain elevated. These factors have intensified risk aversion. But none of them diminish Bitcoin’s long-term investment case.”
He adds that sophisticated investors are not interpreting the Bitcoin decline as a structural breakdown.
“Institutional desks are watching the $80,000–$90,000 area closely. They’re analyzing it as a valuation zone with long-term appeal rather than a point of distress. This tells you where professional conviction stands.”
Nigel Green highlights several structural forces that continue to underpin Bitcoin, even in a correction.
“Supply is fixed, adoption remains on an upward trend, and the infrastructure supporting large-scale participation is improving.
“In addition, more sovereign wealth funds and corporate treasuries are assessing digital assets as part of strategic diversification. These developments create a demand base that did not exist in earlier cycles.”
He argues that the interplay between these long-term factors and near-term monetary policy creates a powerful setup. “When structural demand meets improving liquidity, the effect is amplified. Bitcoin has already shown this repeatedly across multiple cycles. The drawdown does not erase that dynamic.”
Nigel Green expects investors to respond quickly if the Federal Reserve delivers a cut.
“Volatility will spike around the announcement, but underlying flows are likely to shift in Bitcoin’s favor. Investors want to deploy capital; they simply want assurance that monetary conditions are moving in the right direction.”
He concludes: “This Fed meeting is going to be a decisive moment for digital-asset markets. Bitcoin has absorbed a severe correction, but the essential foundations remain strong.
“A rate cut would strengthen liquidity, lift market confidence, and set the stage for the next phase of Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory.”
