(Olawale Oladeji)
waledejiwale@gmail.com

Interesting is the word that aptly describes last week’s forex trading activities.
From the U.S data to President Donald Trump’s speech on Presidential Day and then to the relative strength of the Japanese Yen
In the prior week, I remember telling traders to sell EURJPY because investors were already taking profit on risky asset in preference for what they consider safe havens. The uncertainty in Fiscal policy especially in the U.S is becoming a major concern to discerning investors.
My analyses this week is more EURO pairs, because I find something interesting in them.

EUR/JPY
The chart above shows how the market bounced off the 119.5 to 121.3 area as expected, before we begin to see some exhaustions and a huge sell-off on a Friday candlestick back to 119.7 area.
For traders who are yet to take a position on this pair, I’ll suggest you wait for the break into the 119.5 area, before you sell any bounce afterwards.
Fundamental
The Euro’s weakness is based on political uncertainty in the EUROZONE and some poor data that came out last week like the GERMAN ZEW Economic Sentiment that came below expectation, showing a loss of confidence by investors.
The Yen’s strength is driven by investor seeking a safe haven, due to political uncertainty.

EUR/GBP
Euro-British Pound pair is an interesting pair to watch out for. Looking at the chart, some traders will call the pattern thereon “Head and shoulder.” But then, is it really?
For me, it’s not. A Head and shoulder pattern is not real or complete without the break of the neckline.
Well, on my chart is a symmetrical triangle, where a resistance and support are at 0.86397 and 0.84700 area, (where my 200 SMA lies) respectively. A break below or above will determine my bias on this pair but for now, I’m still sitting on my hands regarding this pair.
Fundamental
Uncertainty surrounds both currencies, because the Eurozone is electoral and
Political, while for The British Pound it is Economical because of last year’s vote by Britons to leave the European Union (EU).
The direction to go with this pair therefore will be determined by the outcome of these uncertainties. Traders should watch out for news regarding these things issues.

EUR/CAD
The Euro and Canadian Dollar pair is offering an interesting outlook for next trading week. After we saw a decent move to the downside from 1.47710 to 1.38830 areas and even to 1.38600 area, which turned out to be a fake break out anyway. But what caught my eyes was the pin bar on the weekly chart that formed a trendline and support of 1.3883 area.
I sense something not-so-good coming up for the Canadian dollar in the coming week.
As a result, I have a buy-stop at the 1.397 area with take-profit and stop-loss at 1.4277 and 1.385 area.

Fundamental
Despite the fact that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel cut its crude oil production output, production level in the US as shown by the Energy Intelligence Agency report and Baker Hughes oil rigs have been on a progressive increase, a situation crude oil price and the Canadian dollar have not really responding to. We might therefore see a change of that in the coming week. Traders should be prepared to see some move in crude oil (WTI) price and Canadian dollar pairs. And also watch out for Core Retail sales month-on-month (m/m) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming on Wednesday and Friday for the Canadian Dollar.

NZD/JPY
Traders who checked out my analyses for last week will know about the New Zealand Dollar’s weakness is not new. Aside against the US dollar, I’ve found somewhere else I could sell the NZD’s weakness.
I became interested when the pair failed to stay above my 34 -EMA highs (green). And now the pair has broken the trendline at the 81.1 area and it is moving toward a major support at the 80.57 area. Truly, the NZD might be weak, but price level matters a lot (to me especially), meaning that I will only pull a sell trigger when the market breaks through 80.57 support area.

Fundamental
After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) extended its forecast on inflation and its chances of rate hike, The Kiwi (NZD) recorded another bad news on its Economic data for retail sales q/q (quarter on quarter) which was expected at 1.3%, but came out below expectation at 0.8%. This catalyzed the kiwi’s weakness against strong pairs such as the US$ and JPY.
Traders should watch out for more Economic data coming up for NZD such as PPI input q/q And a major one GDT price index on Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon.