Market Update for September 26
The Nigerian equities market wrapped up the last trading session of the week on a bullish note, extending Thursday’s rebound as investors continued to take advantage of attractive valuations and improved sentiment across key sectors. The market has remained resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds, underpinned by improved liquidity in the FX market, rising oil prices, and expectations of stronger Q3 corporate earnings releases beginning next month.
Friday’s session reflected a continuation of the recent risk-on mood, with institutional players and retail investors alike positioning for dividend-paying and fundamentally strong stocks. Market participants are also reacting to the relative stability in naira exchange rates and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s cautious but steady approach to monetary policy tightening, which has kept interest rates elevated but predictable. This combination of factors has spurred portfolio rebalancing, with some investors moving away from the fixed income space where yields have plateaued, and rotating funds back into equities for capital appreciation opportunities.
Macro Backdrop & Investor Sentiment:
The broader macroeconomic environment continues to set the tone for equity flows. Nigeria’s high inflation remains a challenge, but the recent moderation in month-on-month price pressures has supported a cautiously optimistic outlook for consumer spending and corporate margins. Foreign portfolio inflows are gradually picking up, encouraged by improved transparency in FX operations and the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, which has boosted confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic direction.
The improved risk appetite is also linked to the global commodities market, where rising crude oil prices are enhancing Nigeria’s revenue outlook and strengthening expectations for increased external reserves. Higher oil prices have historically provided a tailwind for the equities market, particularly for banking stocks that benefit from improved FX liquidity and for oil-linked consumer goods players with stronger foreign currency earnings.
Sector Rotation & Market Breadth:
Friday’s rally was broad-based, with significant activity in consumer goods, industrials, and banking sectors. The consumer goods index recorded one of the strongest performances as investors accumulated positions in Nigerian Breweries, PZ Cussons, and Honeywell Flour. Market players are pricing in stronger Q3 numbers for brewers and food processors, as cost pressures ease following recent improvements in logistics and energy availability.
The industrial goods sector maintained its positive trajectory, with strong demand for WAPCO and Dangote Cement on the back of sustained infrastructure development projects across Nigeria. Cement demand has remained robust, supported by government capital expenditure disbursements and private real estate activity.
Banking stocks also attracted significant inflows, led by UBA, Stanbic IBTC, AccessCorp, ZenithBank, and GTCO, as investors took positions ahead of their Q3 results and the potential for interim dividends. Renewed foreign investor participation in Tier-1 banks has been a key driver of recent gains in the sector, supported by improved FX liquidity and expectations of stronger net interest income due to high yields on government securities.
Technical Picture & Trading Patterns:
Technically, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) remains firmly in an uptrend, holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a signal that buying momentum remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed near 68, which is just below the overbought region, suggesting that while momentum remains strong, the market may be primed for short-term consolidation if profit-taking kicks in early next week.
Volume indicators, however, show a slight divergence as traded volume dipped significantly compared to the previous session, which could imply a slowing pace of accumulation in the near term. Nonetheless, market breadth remains firmly positive, which historically points to sustained upward momentum in subsequent sessions. For traders, immediate support is seen around the 141,000-point region, with a breakout above 142,500 likely to open the way for further upside towards 144,000 in the coming days if buying interest is sustained.
Global Market & Oil Price Impact:
On the international front, oil prices extended their rally on Friday, supported by rising geopolitical risks following renewed drone attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s energy infrastructure. This has prompted Moscow to impose a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end and to extend its gasoline export ban, deepening supply concerns in the global market.
Brent crude rose 1.28% to $70.31 per barrel, while WTI gained 1.79% to $66.14 per barrel, putting both benchmarks on track for their largest weekly gains since mid-June. The sustained strength in oil prices is a positive driver for Nigeria’s fiscal and external balances, potentially easing pressure on the government’s financing needs and strengthening the naira. This is likely to filter into improved investor sentiment for energy-related equities and the broader market in the weeks ahead.
Market Performance & Key Movers:
At the close of trading on Friday, September 26, 2025, the NGX All-Share Index advanced by 0.70% to settle at 142,133.02 points, up from 141,149.04 points in the previous session. Market capitalization added ₦617.45 billion, closing at ₦89.96 trillion and lifting year-to-date return to 38.09%.
Market breadth finished strong with 33 gainers against 22 decliners, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment. THOMASWY led the gainers’ chart, while FIDELITYBK topped the losers’ list. Total traded volume declined by 90.53% to 518.66 million units, valued at ₦18.05 billion across 22,350 deals. ABBEYBDS accounted for the highest volume with 50.03 million units, while STANBIC posted the highest traded value at ₦4.17 billion (23.11% of total value traded), followed closely by ZENITHBANK and MTNN.
The market’s strong close capped a week of renewed optimism, with investors positioning ahead of Q3 earnings season, end-of-quarter rebalancing, and the potential boost from higher oil revenues. The sustained positive sentiment and technical strength suggest that the market remains on course for further upside, barring significant external shocks or aggressive profit-taking in the coming week.
