Ramy Zeytouni

Crude oil stabilised on Thursday, with prices recovering slightly from a two-month low. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the US-Russia summit on Ukraine, concerned that the meeting could either ease sanctions on Russian crude or lead to tougher measures against buyers. Threats of secondary tariffs on major importers, including China and India, could remain a source of risks.

At the same time, the market could remain exposed to downside risks as OPEC+ increases production. Additional supply could weigh on prices, in particular if progress in peace talks with Russia leads to an increase in volumes available.

Looking ahead, global oil demand is expected to grow moderately, with production increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers outpacing consumption through 2025 and 2026. OECD demand remains flat, while non-OECD consumption continues to expand. Traders could continue to monitor new economic data to gauge the pace of demand growth.

Zeytouni is market analyst at Ramy Zeytouni llc