Frank Walbaum

Crude oil futures have remained confined to a narrow range above USD 68 per barrel as markets respond to mixed supply and demand expectations. On the demand side, heightened caution reflects concerns about the economic impact of recent U.S. tariffs on key trading partners and the unexpected increases in crude inventories in the U.S. Nonetheless, resilient U.S. gasoline consumption has provided a floor to prices, with Energy Information Administration data showing larger-than-expected decreases in stocks for gasoline and distillates.

On the supply side, OPEC+ has pressed ahead with scheduled production increases. The output growth could weigh on prices and limit the upside potential. In case demand decreases, prices could be exposed to the downside. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and episodic attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea could help maintain prices within the existing range. Looking forward, the broadening of U.S. tariffs could affect global growth and limit oil consumption, potentially weighing on prices.

Walbaum is Market Analyst at Naga