Market Update for March 11
The seesaw movements on the Nigerian Exchange persisted on Tuesday, as selling pressure and profit taking weighed on the benchmark indicators reflecting portfolio rebalancing in the face of bargain hunting and expectation of more corporate earnings reports. More companies are notifying the NGX of the board meetings to approve their audited financial statements for the 2024 full-year and dividend declaration.
The ongoing volatility in major stock markets across the world continue to be driven by the trade war tension and uncertainties surrounding the Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. Selloffs in these mature markets are already creating buy opportunities that supported a rebound in some sectors of those market, even as investor sentiment remain mixed with many seeking safe havens in other investment windows.
The Composite NGX All-Share index suffered a decline that wiped out the previous marginal gain on a less than average traded volume and negative market breadth, as oscillation continued on the exchange, even as the index’s action broke away from its consolidating range to form a bottom reversal pattern that needs confirmation. The seeming renewed buying interest in insurance stocks and other fundamentally sound companies that experienced pullbacks recently which attracts dividend income investors as they position ahead of dividend announcement.
The current waves in the market are short term realities that are driven by market dynamics in repositioning and preparation for more audited scorecards and dividend expectation this season. Importantly also at this period are dividend payout and yields which remain very important to players at a time like this, when there is over-subscription in TB auction and rates are declining in recent time. Knowing that different phases of the market comes with its own opportunities and benefits, especially with reactions to earnings as market players are digesting corporate numbers and rate direction of the apex bank after the last policy meeting.
The distribution phase of the NGX provide opportunity for market players to target dividend paying companies, as pullbacks will impact dividend yields positively and provide room for higher upside that support capital gain. This is because the market has entered oversold region that signal reversal in the midst of selling sentiments for some sectors, consolidation moves in some industries and expectations of positive corporate numbers from some others, based on their quarterly and full year unaudited performance, coupled with their dividend payouts history.
Technically, money flow and other momentum tools are down, revealing somewhat weakness and strength that present opportunities to buying low and selling high in the midst ongoing volatility and mixed sentiment. The index was slightly up to signal watch thereby creating the perfect setup for high probability of continuation to catch dividend season repositioning at the right price. Also, as the index still trades below the T-line and heading to breakdown the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA, this indicates relatively weakness in the face of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the economy.
The NGX index’s action inched lower in the midst of distribution phase and selling sentiments, as revealed by candlestick formation and momentum indicators. As ADX looked down to read 31.10points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were up at 51.09 and 29.46 points against the previous session’s 50.36 and 22.18 points respectively. Consequently, market players should watch this current trend and trade wisely in the face of funds entering the market on a mixed sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others on a daily time frame. Also, trading volume pattern continued to oscillates, suggesting smart money are watching amid players revaluing the market and short-term opportunities, looking at economic events in the face of policy direction of the government that look inconsistent and global economic outlook in the face of trade war tension.
To navigate the rest of Q1 and beyond profitably, it is important to run with economic events, fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday’s trading session “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent pullbacks. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to position in undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil prices on Tuesday inched up to continue its oscillation, as it trades at $70.03 per barrel in the midst of trade war tension and OPEC plan to hike production. As Eurogroup and US push for peace talk in Ukraine. The geopolitical tension across many economies remains a concern to the global economy and energy consumption in 2025. This trend may likely continue, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility, even as the raging war between Ukraine and Russia continues to influence global oil supply and demand.
Tuesday’s trading started in the downside and was sustained throughout the session, as a result of selling pressure and profit taking in mid to high cap stocks. This situation pushed the NGX’s index to an intra-day low of 106,154.40bps from its highs of 106,621.90bps, before closing below its opening level at 106,167.80bps.
Market technicals were negative and mixed with lower volume when compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bears on a selling sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 3% buy position and 97% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.70points, just as energy behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index inched lower to read 22.81pts, from the previous day’s 29.46pts, indicating that funds entered the market.
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Index and Market Caps
At the end of the trading session, the benchmark NGX All-Share Index shed 454.16 basis points, closing at 106,167.75bps from 106,621.90bps, representing a 0.43% decline, while market capitalization fell by N284.41bn, at N66.48tr from the previous day’s N66.77tr, representing a 0.43% depreciation in value.
Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their oversold range has increased as market correction and volatility call for intelligent trading and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.
To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.
Meanwhile, the upturn was driven by selloffs and profit booking in the shares of MTNN, Africa Prudential, Transcorp, Accesscorp, Caverton and Dangote Sugar, among others. This impacted negatively on Year-To-Date gain that inched up to 3.15%, while Market capitalization gain stood at N7.12tr, representing 6.29% increase over its opening level for the year.
Bearish Sector Indices
Sectoral performance indexes were down save for NGX Insurance index that closed higher by 0.87%, while the NGX Consumer goods led the decliners after losing 0.28%, followed by Banking and Energy with 0.21% and 0.03% respectively. Just as NGX Industrial goods finished flat.
Market breadth turned negative as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 29:23, while activities in volume and value were down after investors exchanged 311.11m shares worth N7.76bn. Volume was driven by trades in Fidelity Bank, Accesscorp, GTCO, Zenith Bank and Universal Insurance.
Livestock Feeds and Cornerstone were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.93% and 9.25% respectively, closing at N9.85 and N3.19 per share respectively on the back of sentiment and market forces. On the flip side, ABC Transport and Daarcom lost 7.98% and 7.46%, closing at N1.50 and N0.62per share, purely on profit taking and selloffs.
Market Outlook
We expect mixed sentiments to continue on profit taking, portfolio reshuffling and bargain hunting and digesting of corporate action/ Q1 earnings forecast, as more earnings are expected to hit the market with dividend announcement. Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of price correction to buy into value.
This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
Q2 2025 Investdata Master Class
Theme: Post-Earnings Season Strategies For Winning Edge In Q2 Market Oscillation
Sub-Topics
- Risk-Reward Managing Tools & Proven Patterns For Profitable Trading On The NGX by Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, ED Operations at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
- Game-Changing Strategies For Identifying Overvalued & Undervalued Stocks In Any Market Cycle For Higher Returns, by Mr Kebira Jimoh Aruna, MD/CEO GlobalView Capital Ltd
- NGX Sector Rotation With Earnings Power & Technical Tools For Profitable Investing,by Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
- Current Opportunities In Nigeria’s Mortgage Landscape, by Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner, Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors & Valuers
It is obvious that volatility on the NGX is not ending soon. So, how would you describe the recent market action? “Topping,” “Pullbacks,”or“Volatility.”
What is important is how and what you should be doing to build your wealth in view of these changing market fundamentals and otherwise. The strange trends and patterns emerging on the exchange are unusual for fundamentalist and dividend income investors, because the inflow of impressive corporate earnings and dividend announcements is not impacting yields positively, as expected in the new phase of the equities market.
It is an anomaly we have only seen once before in this decade. The last time this pattern played out was in late 2007 and early 2008, and it helped to create some of the biggest winners in stocks market history. In the NGX today, intelligent investors and smart traders are combining fundamental and technical analyses to beat market oscillation and manipulation in the various cycles and seasons. That is why we are excited to share something New and Unique in this upcoming Q2 Master Class.
Takeaways from this Q2 Master Class
- Discover how successful traders and investors wake up Knowing how the market and trades are likely to move
- Learn how technical traders catch market turns and ride the waves in days or weeks
- How following Trends and Patterns can boost your trading returns
- Simple and effective short-term trading strategiesyou can implement in just a few minutes daily
- How to quickly identify the best trades and investing opportunities to win
- The power of sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing for boosting your portfolio bottom line.
- What stands you out as a pro as you start thinking and trading with confidence
- 5 Stocks that will outperform inflation by doubling CPI rate in Q2, 2025
Don’t miss this class, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind……
Date: March 29, 2025
Time: 9am
Fee: N100,000
Venue: Zoom
If you want to reset your profit by taking advantage of opportunities in financial market and assets repricing in Q2 and beyond, send Yes to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.
Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605
