Equities

Expect Mixed Trend, Sentiments On Positive Economic Data, 2021 Year-End Repositioning

Market Update for the Week Ended November 26 and Outlook for Nov 29 – Dec 3

The month of November is gradually winding down on a positive note, despite the high volatility to usher in the last month of the year that is highly characterized by seasonality, historical trends and patterns that suggest a strengthening bullish move in December. The period under review had a mixed performance that reversed the previous down market on the strength of buying interests in blue chips and highly capitalized stocks on a less than average traded volume, despite the negative market breadth for the week.

The market volatility and sideways trending in the week before rebounding on Friday, suggest that many players were watching out for the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, being the last one for the year 2021. Members of the committee, however, voted as expected, just as all eyes were on the TB primary market auction rates with the long tenored rate further declining to 5.89% from 6.50%, while the bond market is yet to give a clear direction of yields in the fixed income environment.  Knowing the power of the circular flow of funds in the financial market is key, especially at this time of positioning for the Santa Claus rally, end of the quarter, and year window dressing ahead of the 2021 full-year earnings season in Q1 2022.  These seasonal activities and corporate actions in 2022 are expected to influence stock prices positively, depending on market liquidity and events that unfold.  

Already, Q3 numbers have given discerning investors and traders an insight into what should be expected at the end of this current financial year-end, especially for companies with December as year-end. This is especially true of those with earnings trending up and traded volume also in that direction with other positive technicals that point to higher upside potential. As the market cross to December 2021, Investdata sees a solid bull-run or uptrend, except something happens to disrupt these expectations and general historical trends.

The less than average traded volume, during the week, is an indication that institutional investors are not selling, rather they are taking position gradually and the volume that took the market up is still very intact. The light volume on the buying activities shows that retail investors like you and I are the ones jumping into position. 

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Movement Of NGXASI

The NGX index action for the week recorded a mixed trend and performance of two sessions upmarket and three days down market to finish the period higher on mixed technicals, positive economic data, and improving market liquidity, going into the month of seasonality. Trading for the week started slightly on the upside on Monday, before side trending on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as the composite NGX All-Share index lost 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.34% respectively, but rebounded sharply on Friday, gaining 0.46% on improved traded volume, following the increased buying interests in telecoms giant- Airtel Africa, that brought the week’s cumulative gain to 0.25%, compared to the previous week’s 0.12% loss.

Consequently, the composite NGXASI chalked 109.02 basis points, closing at 43,308.29bps, after touching an intra-week high of 43,334.93bps from its lows of 43,069.97bps, as the week’s opening figure was 43,199.27bps on positive sentiments and buying interest in bellwethers stocks. Market capitalization during the period rose by N104bn, closing at N22.60tr, compared to the previous week’s N22.54tr, which also represented a 0.25% value gain.

The top advancers table for the week was dominated by low and medium cap stocks in the midst of profit-taking and buying sentiments as bargain interests in University Press, Honeywell, FBN Holdings, GSK, and Airtel Africa. These followed investors’ position ahead of the 2021 financial year-end dividend on the strength of the nine-month financials and positive economic data.  During the week also, the share price of Aiico Insurance was adjusted for the bonus issue announced by the board.

Market breadth was negative during the week in the midst of the less than average traded volume and buying sentiment that is likely to continue after the MPC meeting was in line with market expectation, this week. Decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 49:28, on positive sentiment as revealed by the investors’ sentiment report showing a 90% buy volume and 10% sell position. The Money Flow Index was down at 70.76bps from the previous week’s 77.28 points, an indication that funds exited the market.

NSEASI WEEKLY CHART MOVEMENT

The NGX index’s action, on a weekly chart, remains above its 20 and 50-Day Moving Average to sustain a bull-trend, despite the sideways movement as a result of profit-taking, as it resisted decline after testing the 43,069.97bps strong support level on a less than average traded volume that indicates indecision among players. The candlestick pattern at the end of last week revealed a gradual return of strength on bargain hunting, even as the index action is set to retrace up, depending on market sentiment in the new trading week that usher in December will support an uptrend. However, all eyes are on the fixed income market yields and oil prices that should further support market fundamentals to attract liquidity to the equity space.

University Press and Ikeja Hotel were the best-performing stocks for the period after gaining 27.80% and 17.4% respectively, closing at N2.94 and N1.35 per share respectively on market forces. On the flip side, Aiico and UPDC lost 44.44% and 14.94% respectively, at N0.70 and N1.31per share, on price adjustment for script dividend and selloffs.

Outlook for the week

We expect a mixed trend and sentiment to continue on positive economic data and repositioning for the 2021 financial year dividend in the new year, as bargain hunters continue to take advantage of price correction in fundamentally sound stocks to buy in. It is also noteworthy that foreign investors, fund, and portfolio managers continue to take a position on Q3 numbers ahead of 2022 corporate actions. For now, many stocks remain in their buy range to attract funds into the equity space. Also, investors will continue tracking yields movement in the fixed income market.   Also, investors are still observing the interplay of forces in the FX market as exchange rate in the back market continues to decline. Last week’s above-average volume suggests that institutional investors are not selling. It is noteworthy that oil price continues to oscillate as it trades above $81 in the international market; corporate actions, as well as the interim dividend possibilities, are around the corner.

Invest 2022 Traders & Investors Summit

Theme: Master The Market, Get The Best Of Pre-Election Year 2022

Sub-Topics

1.  Balanced Trading: Playing Nigeria’s Multiple Exchanges For Diversification, MrOlatundeAmolegbe, CEO, Arthur Steven Asset Management  Ltd &President of CIS 
2. Agriculture, Economic Recovery & Diversification: Where Is Commodity Trading In Your Portfolio, MrAkinyinkaAkintunde, Business Development Manager, AFEX Commodities Exchange Ltd.
3. Technical Outlook & Indicators For Profitable Market Timing, Mr Abdul-Rasheed OshomaMomoh, Head Capital Market at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd 
4. Benefits & Dangers Of Fixed Income Instruments In An Inflationary Environment, MrTeribaAdeboye, MD/CEO, Qualinvest Capital ltd
5. Economic Outlook and implications of the N16.45 Trillion 2022 Budget On Sectors/Stock Market, MrOluwasegunAkinwale, Senior Portfolio Manager,Coronation Asset Management Ltd
6. Profitable Stock Picks Made Easy, Using Fundamental Tools, Mrs. Ebiere Helen Fumudoh, MD/CEO, Norrenberger Securities Ltd
7. The Role of Real Estate & REIT Instruments In the Ecosystem, Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner,Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors &Valuers 

8. Trade Opportunities & 10 Golden Stocks for 2022, Mr Ambrose Omordion, Chief Research Officer, Investdata Consulting Ltd

Investdata Consulting Limited holds the 10th edition of its annual Investment conference tagged Invest 2022 Traders & Investment Summit, which has over the years remained a game changer for market players. This edition is aimed at helping stakeholders identify opportunities and bringing ideas for profitable trading as we enter a pre-election year.

Invest 2022 is a not-to-be missed summit capable of completely changing your view about where the economy and stock market are headed and when you should fully plunge in or hold cash.  Join the experts and experienced professionals to discuss a Big Picture Perspective of where the stock market and other investment windows are currently placed and what signs to be vigilant about over the coming months and year 2022.  Don’t miss this summit.

We have held this annual summit since 2012, to give investor and traders insight, perspective and expectation in the new year.  This year Invest 2022 Summit is exceptional being vaccination driven economic recovery after Covid 19 disruption.  The big picture of what is happening and outlook for 2022, analysis of the status of different investment windows and opportunities, ranging from the economy, equity, bond, commodity, real estate and others using fundamental and technical tools.

More than 80% of the golden stocks pick during Invest 2021 Summit have beaten their targets, returning more than 40% to 60% in less a year. Due to growing concern and fear around the globe and domestic economy/stock market as analysts are predicting a big melt-down in stocks from ant time soon, to sometime in 2022.

Looking at history, there is no doubt that correction or pullbacks are on the cards at some stage. However, this big questions on everybody minds are when will this occur and whether it will end this bull run or market recovery.

Whatever happens, what is the best way to Prepare rather than try to Predict? This is what Invest 2022 Summit will address.  So you are invited to Speck or facilitate at this event

What to expect at this Summit?
A. Why the market is on high alert for the New Year rally, or Correction
B. Strategies to stay in profit, overcome market correction/pullbacks
C. How to position in stocks for robust profit ahead of 2022
D. How to take advantage of the circular flow of funds in financial markets
E. Risk/return from Bonds to stocks right now.
F. Key to profitable trading and investing in the stock market/other investment windows

Benefits for attending

 1,10 Golden Stocks for 2022
 2, Admission to Investdata Buy & Sell WhatsApp Platform
 3, Among others
Don’t miss this summit, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind…….
“Invest 2022 – Connects you to new trade opportunities and ideas to boost your trading results/bottom line”

Don’t miss this summit, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind……..

Date: December 4, 2021

Time: 9am

Venue: Zoom

Want to be among the successful investors and traders in 2022? Send Yes to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.

Meanwhile, the home study packs on Comprehensive Stock Market trading course video,Stock Market Analysis Beyond Fundamental & Technical Analysis,  INVEST 2021 New Opportunities & New Paths To Profits Summit materials and 10 Golden Stocks for 2021, Strategies and How to invest profitably in this Changing Market Dynamics/ Recession, Mastering Earnings Season For Profitable Investing and Trading in any market situation/ cycles, Life Beyond COVID 19 Investment Opportunities In The Stock Market are now available. To obtain your pack send ‘Yes’ or ‘Stock’ to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd

info@investdata.com.ng

ambrose.o@investdataonline.com

ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com

Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605

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