Market Update for March 13
The positive outing on the Nigerian Exchange continued at the midweek when investors’ wealth improved on the back of intense bargain hunting, just as dividend income investors positioned for more corporate earnings, without losing sight of the impending release of the February Consumer Price Index reports scheduled for release on Friday.
Amid all these, the benchmark NGX All-Share index closed higher on sustained buying interest across the major sectors of the market, as funds entered the equity space. This cannot be separated from the outcome of the Treasury Bill primary market auction at midweek which revealed a slight decline in rates across all the tenors. The 91, 182 and 364-day bills dropped to 16.24%, 17% and 21.12% respectively, from the last auction’s 18.01%. 18% and 21.49% in the face of runaway inflation figure of 29.9% in January.
The NGXASI’s action extended its winning streak for the eighth consecutive session to trade above the T-line, as market recovery and uptrend persists to breakout another psychological line of 104,000 in the midst of higher yields in the fixed income market and ongoing earnings reporting season which has entered its peak with all eyes on financial services providers especially to give direction in the face of rising inflation and FX challenges.
Meanwhile, the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting at which members would assess the impact of the 400 basis points rate hike draws closer, even as we await the report of the Consumer Price Index which we project may show inflation rate at 30.87%. Also, the equity market is in the last month of Q1 2024, when institutional investors and fund managers reposition their portfolios to ensure they close higher, which is why it is called end of the quarter or month window dressing.
Nigeria’s economic reality continues to reflect on the corporate and economic numbers released in recent times, especially in the 2023 audited financials released so far that have come mixed and even weak, especially among manufacturing companies revealing the impact of a rash of government and monetary policies on the economy, even as headwinds persist. This arises from foreign exchange hiccups which is putting pressure on the everyday operations of companies and subsequently, their performance following which many are reporting negative earnings, leaving zero rewards for their shareholders.
More companies on the NGX continued to notify investors of delays in filing their 2023 audited financials, the latest were from Linkage Assurance, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank, among others.
Accesscorp announced the return of Mr Aigboja Imoukhuede as its Chairman and Airtel Africa proposed public offer, while earnings forecast for Q2 were made available by Jaiz Bank, Cornerstone Insurance, and others. Also, during the session, Insider dealings updates were provided by Cutix, MTNN, Transpower, just as Transcorp notified the NGX outcome of its board meeting.
The uptrend and improving momentum persists with the index staying above the T-Line to gather more strength and surpassed the next resistance level as the index’s action remain on markup phase. The current state of market has created buy opportunities for position traders ahead of the release of more audited accounts. Market players should watch out for the value areas of resistance and support levels, as more earnings hit the market. The index’s action has displayed a mixed picture as all eyes are on companies’ earnings, following the optimism fueled by the belief that the impressive performance from the financial sector among others may impact the market positively.
Midweek’s candlestick formation and top chart pattern revealed reversal and continuation of trend which still requires confirmation as trading opens this morning at the NGX. Therefore, investors should target companies with consistent track records of dividend payment, strong fundamentals and growth prospects that will support further growth in earnings which price feeds on in any market cycle. Technically, the index’s action is still relatively strong with top chart pattern that signaled possible reversal as profit taking is underway after straight seven day back to back rally.
The momentum indicators signal relatively strength in the market, as the ADX inched up at 32.13, while RSI and Money Flow Index are looking up to read 65.87 and 64.74 points against the previous session 64.69 and 59.64 points respectively. As money flow index indicates flow of funds into equity space at the end of the day trading, which traders should, also watch and trade with caution after forming a top pattern. As trading volume pattern remained mixed, to suggests rekindled position taking in some sectors and also, profit booking in the face of others investment windows returns remain below inflation and deprecating Naira.
To navigate the rest of the quarter and beyond profitably using fundamental and technical analysis to run, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday trading day “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent range market. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil price at midweek rebounded sharply to continue its oscillation, as it trades at $84.12 per barrel in the midst of US crude stock drop and attack on Russia refinery as supply concerns and weak global demand outlook in the face of rising geopolitical tension across the globe remained a major threat to many economies and the commodity market. Also, OPEC left production cuts unchanged and other factors that impact oil price as it continued to oscillate. This trend may likely continue in 2024, this up and down movement that drive volatility. As middle East conflict and war in Ukraine last.
Trading started in the green and it was sustained throughout, despite oscillating on high demand for blue chip companies, financial services stocks and other, while profit taking hit some stocks. This pushed the NGX’s index to an intraday high of 104,035.89bps from its lows of 103,522.90bps, before closing above its opening figure at 104,007.40bps.
Market technicals for the session were positive and mixed, as volume was lower compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bulls on a buying sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 96% buy position and 6% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.78 points, just as momentum behind the day’s performance was relatively strong as Money Flow Index is looking up at 64.74pts, from the previous day’s 59.64pts, indicating that funds entered the market.
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Index and Market Caps
At the end of Wednesday’s trading, the NGXASI gained 482.92 basis points, closing at 104,007.36bps after opening at 103,524.44bps, representing a 0.47% up, just as market capitalization rose by N273.01billion, closing at N58.81tr from the previous day’s N58.53tr, which also represented a 0.47% appreciation in value.
Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their overbought range has just increased to 60 as they rallied to new highs that call for caution and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.
To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.
Midweek’s upturn was driven by position taking in the shares of Julius Berger, ETI, GTCO, MTNN, UBA, Accesscorp, Zenith Bank, Dangote Sugar, Nascon, Wapco and Guinness among others, which impacted positively on Year-To-Date gain which increased to 39.10%. Market capitalization YTD gain stood at N14.42 trillion, representing 43.28% above its opening level for the year.
Bullish Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were bullish, except for NGX Energy that closed flat, while NGX Banking led the advancers after gaining 1.95% followed by Insurance, Consumer and Industrial goods with 0.79% , 0.22% and 0.03% respectively.
Market breadth was positive as gainers outnumbered losers in the ratio of 32:23, while transactions in volume and value were down after players exchanged 326.89m shares worth N9.07bn. Volume was driven by trades in Transcorp, Unity Bank, GTCO, UBA and FBNH.
Julius Berger and ETI were the best performing stocks, gaining 10% each, closing at N67.10 and N22.00per share respectively on earnings expectation and market forces. On the flip side, Skyway Aviation and Sunu Assurance lost 10% and 9.6% respectively, closing at N22.95 and N1.41per share, purely on selloffs and profit taking.
Market Outlook
We expect a mixed sentiment and profit taking as investors digest the outcome of TB auction ahead of February inflation reports on Friday, just as more corporate earnings with dividend are expected to hits the market and investors take advantage of low valuation to position and rebalancing portfolio. This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. As such, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
Investdata Q2 Master Class
Theme: Navigating The Stock Market Profitably Amidst Contracting Economy
Sub-Topics
- Actionable Trade Roadmap And Strategies For Any Market Cycle, Mr Olatunde Amolegbe Managing Director Arthur Stevens Asset Management Ltd
2, Harnessing Market Trends With Economic Stages for Profitable Trading Strategies, Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, Executive Director, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
3, Post-Election Year Trading Opportunities & Risk in 2024, by Mr Abiola Rasaq, CSCS Plc
- Understanding Business Model & Power of Earnings In Equity Price Movement, Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
Date: March 30, 2024
Fee: 70K
Venue: Zoom
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If you want to be among successful investors and traders in Q2, send Yes to: 08028164085, 08179547605 now.
Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
08028164085
