Market Update for March 20

The Nigerian Exchange extended its bearish run on Thursday, as the key indicators inched marginally lower on a mixed session and sentiments reflecting bargain hunting activities and selloffs in some major sectors of the market. All eyes are on more audited financial statements inflow next week ahead of the statutory deadline for submission of 2024 accounts.

Meanwhile, the benchmark All-Share index has formed a bullish hammer, which is a reversal chart pattern in the midst of low traded volume and negative market breadth.

The global economic uncertainty and other local concerns in the events that are unfolding in Rivers State are affecting investor confidence, which had continued to put pressure on the stock market, even with rates in the fixed income market inched higher. In all this, NGX pullbacks or correction are creating new entry opportunities for discerning investors and smart traders to position in value stocks ahead of influx of corporate earnings and end of the quarter window dressing by fund managers and others market operators.

However, these pullbacks have made dividend yields in the market improved ahead of 2024 dividend announcements by many companies especially from the financial services sector and others, even as more number of companies are notifying the market of their board meetings to approve the audited numbers for 2024 and declare dividend for shareholders. This is expected to impact the market positively if these numbers beat expectation in dividend payout and performance. The ongoing volatility due to global trade warfare will definitely make some economies across the globe and mar some others. It is therefore time for economic managers and government to rethink their fiscal and monetary policies if they are to drive and sustain growth in their domain, even as the recent selloffs are creating opportunities to buy in value and rebalance portfolios in the mature markets and in our market today.

Despite, the selloffs and correction, bargain buying is ongoing in stocks that had suffered losses to attract dividend income investors as they position ahead of corporate action announcements. Importantly, at this period dividend growth and yields remain very important to players, when there is over-subscription in TB auction and rates inched up across all tenor at the midweek. It is well known that different phases of the market comes with their own opportunities and benefits, especially with reactions to earnings as market players are digesting corporate numbers and rate direction of the apex bank after the last policy meeting.

The decline phase of NGX provides opportunity for market players to target dividend paying companies, as pullbacks will impact dividend yields positively and provide room for higher upside that support capital gain. This is because the market has entered oversold region that signal reversal in the midst of selling sentiments for some sectors, consolidation moves in some industries and expectations of positive corporate numbers from some others, based on their quarterly and full year unaudited performance, coupled with their dividend payouts history.

Technically, money flow and other momentum tools are down, revealing weakness that present opportunities to buying low and selling high in the midst ongoing volatility and selling sentiment. The index inched lower to signal wait and see, thereby creating the perfect setup for high probability of continuation to catch dividend season repositioning at the right price. Also, as the index still trades below the T-line and the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA, this indicates weakness in the face of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the economy.

Investors sentiment, as revealed by candlestick formation and momentum indicators, shows that ADX looks up to read 26.15points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were mixed at 36.03 and 14.30 points against the previous session’s 36.45and 14.01points respectively. Consequently, market players should watch this current trend and trade wisely in the face of funds are leaving the market on a selling sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others on a daily time frame. Also, trading volume pattern continued to oscillates, suggesting smart money are neither exiting position or watching amid players revaluing the market and short-term opportunities, looking at economic events in the face of policy direction of the government that look inconsistent and global economic outlook in the face of trade war uncertainty and geopolitical tension.

To navigate the rest of Q1 and beyond profitably, it is important to run with economic events, fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday’s trading session “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent pullbacks. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to position in undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.

Oil prices on Thursday inched higher to continue its oscillation, as it trades at $71.02 per barrel in the midst of peace talk, ceasefire on energy and infrastructures as agreed by Trump and Putin. Even as increasing US crude inventory threat OPEC production hike plan and projection, as trade war uncertainty continue to drive sentiment.   The geopolitical tension across many economies remains a concern to the global economy and energy consumption in 2025. This trend may likely continue, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility, even as global economic uncertainty continues to influence global oil supply and demand.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s trading opened in the downside and it was sustained throughout the session, despite oscillating on buying interest in some stocks and selloffs across the major sectors of the market that pushed the NGX’s index to an intra-day low of 104,717.90bps from its highs of 104,972.00bps, before closing below its opening level at 104,858.80bps.

Market technicals were negative and mixed with lower volume when compared to the previous session in the midst of breadth favoring the bears on a mixed sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 55% buy position and 45% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.65points, just as impetus behind the day’s performance was weak as Money Flow Index inched up to read 14.30pts, from the previous day’s 14.01pts, indicating that funds entered the market, despite closing lower.

To successfully invest and trade in this volatile market for the rest of the year, order for Investdata’s video on Buy & Sell Technical Analysis Toolbox to navigate the volatile market profitably, enhance trading decisions and boost your bottom line. Also, to up your game in stock trading and investing, understanding the key to trading price and index action will go a long way to make the difference in your trading results, check out the video materials on our site and take action.

Index and Market Caps

At the end of  Thursday’s trading, the All-Share Index shed 56.36 basis points, closing at 104,858.77bps from 104,915.13bps, representing a 0.05% dorp, while market capitalization fell by N35.4bn, at N65.75tr from the previous day’s N65.95tr, representing a 0.05% value loss.

Attention: If you have not signed up for INVESTDATA’s buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay, because the number of stocks entering their oversold range has increased as market correction and volatility call for intelligent trading and positive chart patterns to be on our watchlist. These stocks have potentials to retrace, considering their earnings prospects and the oscillating moves in an upmarket and weak economy.

To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right at the current oscillating market in the midst of earnings season, portfolio reshuffling, and repositioning as we await an economic reform policy that can stimulate and re-track the economy to the path of growth and development.

The downturn was driven by selloffs and profit taking in Onado, Nahco, Livestock, Updc GTCO, UBA, Zenith Bank, Accesscorp, Ucap and Custodian, among others. This impacted negatively on Year-To-Date gain that inched lower to 1.99%, while Market capitalization gain stood at N5.92tr, representing 4.77% increase over its opening level for the year.

Mixed Sector Indices

Sectoral performance indexes were mixed, as NGX Consumer goods and Insurance closed higher by 0.43% and 0.13% respectively, while the NGX Banking lost 0.45%.  Energy and Industrial goods finished flat.

Market breadth was negative as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 28:4, while activities in volume and value were down after investors exchanged 310.5 million shares worth N6.25bn. Volume was driven by trades in  Fidelity Bank, Veritaskap, NB, Zenith Bank and  Accesscorp.

CWG and Veritas Kapital  were the best performing stocks, gaining 9.46% and 8.41% respectively, closing at N9.10 and N1.17 per share respectively on the back of sentiment and market forces. On the flip side, Livestock Feeds and Royal Exchange   lost 9.57% and 8.23%, closing at N7.65 and N0.78per share, purely on profit taking and selloffs.

Market Outlook

We expect mixed sentiment on bargain hunting, even as market players digest TB auction rates in the midst of profit taking, portfolio reshuffling and digesting of corporate action/ Q1 earnings forecast, as more earnings are expected to hit the market with dividend announcement. Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of price correction to buy into value.

This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.

Q2 2025 Investdata Master Class

Theme: Post-Earnings Season Strategies For Winning Edge In Q2 Market Oscillation

Sub-Topics

1. Risk-Reward Managing Tools & Proven Patterns For Profitable Trading On The NGX by Mr Abdul-Rasheed Oshoma Momoh, ED Operations at, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
2. Game-Changing Strategies For Identifying Overvalued & Undervalued Stocks In Any Market Cycle For Higher Returns, by Mr Kebira Jimoh Aruna, MD/CEO GlobalView Capital Ltd
3.  NGX Sector Rotation With Earnings Power & Technical Tools For Profitable Investing,by Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd
4. Current Opportunities In Nigeria’s Mortgage Landscape, by Mr Tope Ojo, Managing Partner, Tope & Tunde Estate Surveyors & Valuers

It is obvious that volatility on the NGX is not ending soon. So, how would you describe the recent market action? “Topping,” “Pullbacks,”or“Volatility.”

What is important is how and what you should be doing to build your wealth in view of these changing market fundamentals and otherwise. The strange trends and patterns emerging on the exchange are unusual for fundamentalist and dividend income investors, because the inflow of impressive corporate earnings and dividend announcements is not impacting yields positively, as expected in the new phase of the equities market.

It is an anomaly we have only seen once before in this decade. The last time this pattern played out was in late 2007 and early 2008, and it helped to create some of the biggest winners in stocks market history. In the NGX today, intelligent investors and smart traders are combining fundamental and technical analyses to beat market oscillation and manipulation in the various cycles and seasons. That is why we are excited to share something New and Unique in this upcoming Q2 Master Class.

Takeaways from this Q2 Master Class

1. Discover how successful traders and investors wake up Knowing how the market and trades are likely to move
2. Learn how technical traders catch market turns and ride the waves in days or weeks
3. How following Trends and Patterns can boost your trading returns
4. Simple and effective short-term trading strategiesyou can implement in just a few minutes daily
5. How to quickly identify the best trades and investing opportunities to win
6. The power of sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing for boosting your portfolio bottom line.
7. What stands you out as a pro as you start thinking and trading with confidence
8. 5 Stocks that will outperform inflation by doubling CPI rate in Q2, 2025

Don’t miss this class, if you have any exposure to the stock market, either directly or indirectly via managed funds of any kind……

Date: March 29, 2025

Time: 9am

Fee: N100,000

Venue: Zoom

If you want to reset your profit by taking advantage of opportunities in financial market and assets repricing in Q2 and beyond, send Yes to 08028164085, 08179547605 now.

Ambrose Omordion

CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd

info@investdata.com.ng

ambrose.o@investdataonline.com

ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com

Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605