It was a bullish October on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), despite the mixed performance in the last trading week of the month, a situation that was attributed to profit taking as earnings season entered its peak, even when the corporate numbers, especially among high caps and some blue-chip companies were positive and strong, beating market expectations.
The seeming pullbacks or correction are part of market dynamics especially after the market rallied for seven consecutive months on the back of impressive earnings, positive macroeconomic indices, entrance of smart money and strong investor confidence.
Strong buying interests in expectation of earnings supported the optimism that drove the market higher on better-than-expected earnings reports and sector rotations, but selling pressure late in the month moderated overall growth as mentioned earlier.
The All-Share Index (ASI) closed the month at 154,126.44 basis points, up 8%, while market capitalization rosegrew by N7.076 trillion or 9% to N97.83 trillion. Most sectoral indices gained, except for banking that suffered a decline. Below are market activities on weekly performance and review.
Week 1: Positive Market Opening
October started on a strong note, although trading ran only four days due to Nigeria’s Independent Day holiday on October 1. Investors exchanged 8.403 billion shares worth N115.501 billion across 115,801 deals, up from 7.684 billion shares valued at N494.126 billion the previous week.
The Financial Services sector led activity with 7.750 billion shares worth N88.153 billion (92% of total volume), followed by ICT (181 million shares, N4.077 billion) and Consumer Goods (127 million shares, N6.274 billion). Cornerstone Insurance Plc, Fidelity Bank Plc, and United Bank for Africa Plc were the top-traded equities, accounting for 77.7% of volume and 45.6% of value.
Week 2: Mild Profit-Taking
The second week saw slower activities as mild profit-taking occurred. Turnover totaled 2.286 billion shares worth N90.280 billion in 138,177 deals. Financial Services led with 1.355 billion shares worth N24.588 billion, followed by ICT (183 million shares, N7.807 billion) and Agriculture (182 million shares, N3.548 billion).
Ellah Lakes Plc, Chams Holding Company Plc, and Fidelity Bank Plc were the top-traded stocks, representing 18.9% of volume and 6.2% of value. The ASI rose 2.37% to 146,988.04 points, and market capitalization reached N93.296 trillion, while NGX Banking, NGX AseM, and NGX AFR Bank Value indices declined slightly.
Week 3: Volatility Returns
Week three experienced alternating gains and losses. Investors traded 2.422 billion shares worth N76.618 billion in 126,591 deals. Financial Services again dominated with 1.662 billion shares worth N32.565 billion, followed by ICT (185 million shares, N8.662 billion) and Services (155 million shares, N1.066 billion).
Consolidated Hallmark Holdings Plc, Fidelity Bank Plc, and Access Holdings Plc were the most traded, accounting for 25.5% of volume and 12% of value. The ASI rose 1.35% to 148,977.64 points, while market capitalization increased to N94.561 trillion. Certain indices, including Consumer Goods, Banking, and MERI Growth, recorded marginal declines.
Week 4: Profit-Taking Pressures Market
After nine consecutive sessions of gains, week four saw strong selling pressure. A total of 3.695 billion shares worth N129.889 billion changed hands in 148,077 deals. Financial Services led with 2.362 billion shares worth N54.380 billion, followed by Oil & Gas (552 million shares, N19.208 billion) and Consumer Goods (181 million shares, N13.276 billion).
Fidelity Bank Plc, Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc, and Access Holdings Plc were the top-traded stocks, contributing 48.9% of volume and 21.5% of value. The ASI advanced 4.48% to 155,645.05 points, and market capitalization rose to N98.793 trillion, though banking, insurance, and sovereign bond indices fell.
Week 5: Calm Returns with Strong Activity
The final week saw renewed stability and high trading volumes. Investors exchanged 7.479 billion shares worth N145.429 billion across 159,487 deals. Financial Services dominated with 6.639 billion shares worth N74.629 billion, followed by Services (216 million shares, N2.709 billion) and Consumer Goods (126 million shares, N7.334 billion).
Cornerstone Insurance Plc, Wema Bank Plc, and Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc led trading, accounting for 70.4% of volume and 33.7% of value. The ASI fell 0.98% to 154,126.46 points, with market capitalization declining to N97.829 trillion. However, indices such as NGX AFR Dividend Yield, MERI Growth, Oil & Gas, Sovereign Bond, and Commodity posted gains.
Monthly Summary
October 2025 was marked by mixed investor sentiment, alternating periods of gains, and profit-taking. Financial Services consistently led trading activity, while a handful of key equities dominated turnover. Despite mid-month volatility and end-of-month adjustments, market resilience remained evident, supported by strong sector participation and steady investor engagement.
NGXASI Monthly Chart
Month-to-date, the ASI increased 8.00%, and the NGX 30 rose 8.44%. Banking index dropped 3.15%, while Pension Index increased 4.20%, Consumer Goods Index increased 4.85%, and Oil & Gas Index 15.45% posted gains. On a year-to-date basis, the ASI has surged 49.74%, with strong sectoral growth: Banking Index increased by 35.21%, Pension Index increased by 54.97%, Insurance Index increased by 71.47%, Consumer Goods Index increased by 104.10%, and Oil & Gas Index increased by 7.40%. Market breadth was negative, with 29 stocks advancing and 70 declining.
ASO Savings Chart
ASO Savings and Loans Plc topped the gainers’ chart with an exceptional 106% rise, reflecting renewed interest in mortgage and housing finance stocks. Eunisell Interlinked Plc followed with a 49.37% gain, supported by optimism in the industrial and energy services sector. Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc advanced 30% on improved underwriting performance, while Aradel Holdings Plc rose 27.15% amid strong earnings and production growth.
Dangote Cement Plc appreciated 25.69% following impressive Q3 results, and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc gained 22.96% on the back of growing data revenue and digital expansion. Wema Bank Plc and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc each advanced 20.29%, reflecting improved profitability and consumer demand, respectively. Vitafoam Nigeria Plc added 17.79% due to steady earnings, while Mecure Industries Plc climbed 17.62% amid rising investor interest in healthcare stocks.
LivingTrust Mortgage Bank Chart
LivingTrust Mortgage Bank Plc led the losers with a 34.32% decline, followed by John Holt Plc, which fell 32.08%, and Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc, down 30.73%. Sunu Assurance and Regal Insurance dropped 24.71% and 23.13% respectively, reflecting weakness in the insurance sector.
Academy Press Plc declined 20.97%, while eTranzact International Plc fell 20.63% amid reduced activity in fintech stocks. Caverton Offshore Support Group lost 19.50% due to weak earnings, McNichols Plc slipped 17.50%, and Guinea Insurance Plc closed 16.89% lower.
November Outlook
October 2025 demonstrated a resilient Nigerian equities market despite intermittent volatility. Financial Services and highly priced stocks remained the dominant driver of market activity, while a select number of equities dictated turnover. Technical signals suggest that the ASI is consolidating above 153,000 points, with support levels around 152,500–153,000 points and resistance near 156,000–157,000 points. Market momentum is expected to remain cautiously positive in the near term. Strong sector participation, particularly in financial services, ICT, and consumer goods, coupled with healthy trading volumes, supports the potential for incremental gains. Investors are advised to monitor profit-taking patterns and key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings, which could influence market direction in November.
Trending in the Economy: Nigeria’s fiscal deficit rose sharply to ₦13.51 trillion in 2024, pushing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.62%, surpassing the 3% legal threshold. The fourth quarter alone recorded a ₦7.17 trillion shortfall, financed through domestic and external borrowing, project loans, and budget support. The IMF expects the deficit to widen to 4.7% in 2025, citing weaker oil earnings. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to ₦152.40 trillion as of June 2025, reflecting both domestic and foreign liabilities.
In another development, NNPC Ltd. has begun a technical and commercial assessment of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries to determine their operational and financial sustainability. The review, involving local and international experts, seeks to upgrade or repurpose the facilities to enhance efficiency and competitiveness. The company plans to partner with Technical Equity Partners for modernization efforts, in line with the National Energy Strategy and Petroleum Industry Act. Despite their combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day, the refineries have remained largely inactive for over a decade.
Global Market and Oil: Wall Street closed higher on Friday, lifted mainly by Amazon’s strong earnings outlook, though gains were tempered by concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones all posted weekly and monthly gains, extending their longest winning streaks in years.
Amazon shares jumped 9.6% to a record high after projecting better-than-expected quarterly sales, driving the consumer discretionary sector up 4%, its best single-day gain since May. However, Apple dipped 0.4% despite solid iPhone sales forecasts, as CEO Tim Cook warned of potential supply issues. Investor optimism faded after Federal Reserve officials struck a cautious tone. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack revealed she opposed the latest cut, citing stubborn inflation. Market expectations for a December cut fell to 65%, down from over 90% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“The pattern remains the same—earnings are strong, but the Fed’s hawkish comments are tempering enthusiasm,” said James Ragan of D.A. Davidson. Jake Seltz of Allspring added that investors might have been “too quick to bet on lower rates.”
Grocery stocks slipped amid concerns that a lapse in federal food aid during the government shutdown could hit November sales. Despite a court ruling requiring the government to continue SNAP payments, Kroger fell 2.8%, Conagra lost 1.3%, and Walmart declined 1%.
At the close, the Dow gained 0.09% to 47,562.87, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 6,840.20, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.61% to 23,724.96. For the month, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, marking a six-month winning streak, while the Nasdaq climbed 4.7% for its seventh consecutive monthly gain — its longest since 2018.
So far, 83.2% of S&P 500 companies reporting third-quarter results have beaten forecasts, well above the long-term average of 67%. With limited economic data due to the government shutdown, investors have turned their attention to corporate earnings for market direction. Elsewhere, Warner Bros Discovery surged 8.7% after reports that Netflix might bid for its studio and streaming arm. Netflix gained 2.7% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split. Western Digital rose 8.7% on a strong earnings forecast, and First Solar jumped 14.3% after beating revenue estimates.
Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners across major exchanges. Trading volume totaled 21.03 billion shares, roughly in line with recent averages.
In commodities, oil prices edged higher after a volatile session sparked by rumors of potential U.S. strikes on Venezuela — later denied by President Trump. Brent crude settled at $65.07 a barrel, up 0.11%, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.68% to $60.98. Analysts warned that any escalation could push prices sharply higher next week.
