Nigeria Swims Out Of Recession, As Q2 GDP Up 0.55%, Says NBS

Non-Oil Contribution Slows Down, Oil Production Hits 2.05mbpd

It’s official! Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Tuesday morning released its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2017, which confirms as widely expected that the country’s economy is finally out of the woods after about five consecutive quarters of negative growth which began in 2016 Q1.
It closed the 2017 Q2 at 0.55% positive, representing 1.05% growth in the period from minus 0.5% in the preceding quarter, a figure that has now been revised showing that it was indeed worse than initially reported at -0.91%
Specifically, nominal GDP closed the 2017 Q2 N26.99tr, while real GDP for the period closed at N16.31tr.
According to the NBS, from 2.11% growth in 2015 Q4, Nigeria began its journey into recession (technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth), its first in 29 years, when its GDP turned red at 0.67% in the 2016 Q1, from where it worsened to -1.49% and further to a peak of -2.34% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. It thereafter slowed down to -1.72% the following Q4; improving to 0.91% in Q1 2017; before the latest rebound to 0.55%, which is still subject to a revision.
A further analysis of the data showed that Nigeria’s GDP closed at a robust 5.31% in 2011, dropping to 4.21% the following year; from where it rose to 5.49%; jumping to an even more significant 6.22% in 2014; after which it nose-dived, first to 2.79% in 2015, the year President Muhammadu Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) took over government from his predecessor- Dr. Goodluck Jonathan after an election that ended a 16-year rule of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The nation’s economy entered red for the first time in 29 years in 2016, when it closed at -1.58%.
According to the NBS report, non-oil GDP remained the highest contributor at 91.11%, which was however a slight drop from the preceding quarter’s 91.47%; while oil-GDP stood at 8.89% from 8.53% in prior quarter.
A further breakdown showed that the services sector maintained the lead, contributing 53.73% to Nigeria’s GDP in Q2 2017; followed by 23.31% from industries; and 22.97% contributed by the agric sector.
The report also report that a rise in Nigeria’s oil production within the period to 1.84m barrels per day, from 1.69mbpd in Q1 2017, helped by the sustenance of peace in the troubled Niger Delta region as militants ceased vandalism of oil pipelines and other installations in the aftermath of the Federal Government’s overtures.
At 1.84mbpd, according to the data provided by the agency, the 2017 Q2 output is the highest since Q1 2016 when Nigeria produced 2.05mbpd, slightly less than its then 2.2mbpd Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota. Also, since Q3 2015, when output stood at 2.17%, Nigeria has not been able to achieve its quota due to the challenges faced in the Niger-Delta region, as a result of which OPEC at the end of that year exempted the country from its output cut, just like fellow African country- Libya.

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