Nigerian Bourse Extends Two-Week Recovery Amid Cautious Trading Ahead Of Central Bank Policy Meeting

 Trading on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) started the week on a positive note, with the All-Share Index rising 0.79% at the close of Monday’s trading to 141,659 bass points, with market capitalization hitting ₦89.63 trillion in the process. Gains on that day were driven by consumer goods and banking stocks, while oil & gas and insurance sectors remained largely unchanged. Trading activity equally picked up, led by UACN, one of the country’s oldest conglomerates, and GEREGU, a power distribution company, as investors engaged in bargain-hunting ahead of Q3 earnings inflow. It is noteworthy that some profit-taking tempered the optimism nonetheless.

Tuesday saw a slight pullback, as the All-Share Index edged down 0.08% to 141,546.80 points, just as market cap slipped to ₦89.56 trillion, after UBA, FIDELITYBK, and DANGSUGAR recorded losses on a day that CUSTODIAN and several other stocks hit their 52-week highs. Activity slowed to 414.98 million units valued at ₦12.94 billion, with GTCO leading in both volume and value terms. Overall sentiment was cautious, though selective gains indicated pockets of investor interest.

The market rebounded on Wednesday, climbing 0.35% to 142,036.23 points and lifting market capitalization to ₦89.87 trillion, bringing the year-to-date return to 38.00%. ARADEL, FIRSTHOLDCO, and GUINNESS led the gains, while CHELLARAM and GUINNESS hit its new 52-week highs. Trading surged to 1.00 billion units worth ₦24.66 billion, with ABBEYBDS leading volume and ARADEL topping value, reflecting strong mid-week participation.

Thursday’s trading extended the bullish trend, with the ASI rising 0.16% to 142,263.07 points and market capitalization reaching ₦90.01 trillion, lifting the YTD return to 38.22%. GUINNESS, EUNISELL, and DANGSUGAR drove gains, with GUINNESS and EUNISELL recording new 52-week highs. Market breadth was positive, with 30 advancers against 20 decliners. Trading slowed to 325.11 million units valued at ₦8.42 billion, led in volume by ACCESSCORP and in value by ZENITHBANK.

Trading activities slowed down on Friday, as the ASI closed 0.29% south at 141,845.34 points and market cap at ₦89.74 trillion, bringing the YTD return to 37.81%. NGXGROUP, UCAP, and UBA recorded the largest losses, while DEAPCAP gained, just as GUINNESS hit yet another 52-week high. Trading increased to 435.24 million units worth ₦15.13 billion, with UBA recording the highest volume and value.

Sector-wise, the Financial Services segment dominated activity for the week, accounting for 1.91 billion shares worth ₦37.83 billion across 56,026 deals, representing nearly 70% of total volume and 44% of total value. The ICT sector followed with 184.87 million shares valued at ₦6.19 billion, while the Services sector traded 176.51 million shares worth ₦813.25 million.

Abbey Mortgage Bank, Fidelity Bank, and UBA were the most traded stocks, with a combined 875.82 million shares worth ₦16.42 billion changing hands in 11,389 deals. This represented 32.02 percent of total volume and 19.27 percent of total value traded on the exchange.

The NGX ASI and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.92% to close the week at 141,845.35 and N89.744 trillion respectively.

NGXASI Weekly Chart

During the week, the NGX had a mixed trend of two trading sessions of down market and three sessions of up market to sustain the bull transition and ongoing recovery in the midst of rebound liquidity and expectation of stronger Q3 numbers. As policy meeting holds next week Monday and Tuesday in the face of improving macros and outcome of the meeting in action. Week-to-date, the All-Share Index has inclined by 0.92%, with the NGX 30 rising by 0.91%. The Banking Index posted a loss of 2.57%, the Pension Index declined by 0.15%, the Insurance Index declined by 4.67%, and the Consumer Goods Index increased by 5.48%. Oil and Gas Index increased by 2.79%.

On a year-to-date basis, the All-Share Index is up 37.81%, while the NGX 30 has gained 35.55%, The Banking Index surged 37.51%, the Pension Index jumped 47.91%, the Insurance Index rose 73.97%, and the Consumer Goods Index posted a robust 93.93% increase. However, the Oil and Gas Index declined by 8.31%. Market breadth is negative, with 40 stocks advanced and 41 declined. Market capitalization and the NGX All-Share Index stood at N89.744 trillion and 141,845.35 points.

Guinness Nigeria Chart

Guinness Nigeria emerged as the top gainer, climbing from ₦143.00 to ₦183.90, a 28.60 percent increase. Multiverse Mining also advanced strongly, closing at ₦13.95 from ₦11.50, representing a 21.30 percent gain. Eunisell Interlinked appreciated by 20.28 percent, rising from ₦25.40 to ₦30.55, while E-Tranzact gained 11.71 percent to close the week at ₦16.70 from ₦14.95. Chellarams rounded out the top gainers with a 9.77 percent rise, ending at ₦14.60 from ₦13.30.

Omatek Venture Chart

On the flip side, Omatek Ventures led the losers’ chart, falling 18.18 percent from ₦1.32 to ₦1.08 per share. Cornerstone Insurance dropped to ₦6.20 from ₦7.33, down 15.42 percent, while Secure Electronic Technology lost 12.79 percent to close at ₦0.75 from ₦0.86. Royal Exchange shed 11.30 percent, closing at ₦2.04 from ₦2.30, and UBA declined 9.24 percent to finish at ₦44.20 from ₦48.70.

Technical Analysis and Outlook

Technically, the NGX All-Share Index remains in a bullish medium-term trend, supported by rising year-to-date returns and strong midweek participation. Key resistance lies around 142,500 points, while support is observed near 141,200. Momentum indicators suggest caution, as profit-taking was evident late in the week, particularly in banking and conglomerates.

Looking ahead, investors are likely to remain selective, focusing on Q3 earnings reports and high-performing consumer goods and FMCG stocks. Sustained foreign inflows, combined with positive sentiment from moderating inflation and potential interest rate cuts, could provide additional upside. Market watchers should monitor breadth and sector rotation closely, as defensive sectors like Consumer Goods and selected blue-chip banks may continue to attract attention.

Trending in the Economy: Nigeria’s inflation slowed for the fifth month in a row in August, dropping to 20.12% year-on-year from 21.88% in July, largely due to a moderation in food prices. Food inflation also declined to 21.87% from 22.74%, according to the latest data.

The continued decline, supported by changes to the national price index, has fueled expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria may soon cut its benchmark interest rate, which has remained at 27.50% since July. Analysts suggest that the naira’s recent stability could help keep inflation on a downward path.

In a separate move, the finance ministry has suspended the recently implemented 4% FOB levy on imports after businesses warned it would drive up costs and inflation while hurting trade. Finance Minister Wale Edun said the decision came after talks with stakeholders and will allow time to review the levy to make it fairer and more efficient.

Global Market and Oil: Global stocks posted weekly gains despite choppy trading on Friday, buoyed by Wall Street’s record-setting rally and fresh rate cuts from key central banks. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, its first cut since December, while Norway and Canada followed suit, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing.

U.S. equities extended their winning streak with all three major indexes closing at fresh highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 46,144.22 and closed 0.37% higher at 46,315.27. The S&P 500 started the session at 6,631.59 and ended up 0.49% at 6,664.36. The Nasdaq Composite opened at 22,469.33 before finishing 0.72% higher at 22,631.48.

European shares were more subdued, with the STOXX index opening at 507.88 and closing slightly lower at 507.07, down 0.16% on the day and 0.13% for the week. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei opened at 38,410.15 and ended the day down 0.57% at 38,190.73 after the Bank of Japan announced plans to start selling its risky asset holdings. MSCI’s global benchmark index hit a record high of 982.29, ending the week nearly 1% stronger.

Investors are betting that continued monetary easing will sustain equity momentum, but the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach left some traders cautious. Analysts expect the upcoming corporate earnings season in October to play a crucial role in setting the market’s next direction.

U.S. Treasury yields inched higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.129% and the 2-year yield at 3.574%. The dollar strengthened for a third straight session, with the DXY index up 0.33% to 97.67. The euro fell 0.35% to $1.1745, the pound dropped 0.64% to $1.3467, and the dollar climbed 0.4% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc.

Oil prices ended the session lower, weighed by concerns over fuel demand despite optimism from the U.S. rate cut. Brent crude opened at $67.42 and closed down 1.1% at $66.68 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate started at $63.57 and fell 1.4% to $62.68. Gold, however, extended its rally, climbing 1.04% to $3,681.79 and securing its fifth consecutive weekly gain.

INVESTDATA Q4 MASTER CLASS

Theme   Historic NGX Moves In Q4 & Beyond: What Next.

Sub-Topics

1. The Power Of Seasonal Investing In A Recovering Economy- Dr Sylvester Anaba (PhD, FCS) Head Research, United Capital Plc
2. New Actionable Trade Ideas & Strategies In Changing Stock Market, Alhaji Kasimu Garba Kurfi,MD/CEO Apt Securities & Funds Ltd
3. Mastering Contemporary Technical Tools For Wealth Building In Any Market Cycle, Mr Abdul-Rasheed Momoh, Executive Director Operations, TRW Stockbrokers Ltd
4. Time & Price Analyses For Money Making In a Dynamic Market, Mr Ambrose Omordion, CRO. Investdata Consulting Ltd.

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