Market Update for June 11
The seesaw movement on the Nigerian Exchange continued at the midweek, ahead of the public holiday to mark the country’s Democracy Day and 26 years of uninterrupted civilian rule, making this the longest republic in Nigeria’s history, in the midst of buying sentiments and positive momentum to sustain the uptrend.
Despite the seeming unclear closed position of the market in the previous session, the NGX had a positive outing as the twin indicators closed higher on a low traded volume and expanded positive market breadth. All eyes are still on the expected Consumer Price Index for the month of May, as well as the March year-end audited earnings reports that would further give direction and boost confidence, especially if the numbers beat expectations. The rekindled buying interest during the session pushed the index’s action to up, even as it trades below 115,000 psychological line, after testing 115,327.60 basis points.
The market rally so far in June has been on an oscillating money flow that signaled the high risk of either a pullback, or continuation of trend which should be a concern to guide market players, looking at the overall uptrend and the momentum behind it.
At this stage of the market, there is need to avoid panic selling, or the fear of missing out (FOMO) from the uptrend. However, let your trading plan and investment objective guide your entry and exit to take advantage of NGX movement. As government’s economic reforms and better corporate earnings at the end of the first half of 2025 may further boost performance of stock prices on the exchange. Just as some stocks are hitting new 52-week highs in the midst of distribution phase and ongoing recovery.
Buying sentiment is still evident on the exchange, despite the mixed sentiment across the global stock markets, as players await the US-China trade agreement framework that would offer a clear direction on exports and others such dynamics. Meanwhile, the U.S consumer price index for the month of May inched up to 2.4%, against forecast of 2.5%, reflecting the expected impact of the tariff regime being pursued by the Donald Trump administration. Such data is expected to guide the Fed’s policy decision on rate hike or cut.
Market players should watch momentum, price action and market structure while timing their trades for entry and exit amid continuing portfolio rebalancing on the exchange.
The NGX rebounded with funds entering the market on position taking in some mid and blue-chip companies, as traders continue to navigate and watch trends, targeting value on the strength of companies’ performance and prospect, looking at growth and defensive stocks with strong earnings power and positive technicals in the face of sector rotation persisting. The market is still on a strong wave, even as it’s retracing up in the midst of sector rotation, consolidation moves in some industries and sectors.
Technically, Money Flow and other momentum tools were mixed, indicating that funds entered the market slightly on buying momentum that presents opportunities to buy low and sell high in the midst ongoing volatility and uptrend. The index inched higher on a buying interest, thereby creating the perfect setup for high probability of continuation to catch better-than-expected corporate earnings to reposition at the right price. Also, the index still trades above T-line and the two moving averages of 50-EMA and 50-SMA which reveals strength in the midst of changing market fundamentals and technicals on the NGX and the economy.
Investors sentiment as revealed by candlestick formation and momentum indicators, shows that the ADX is looking up to read 46.06 points, while RSI and Money Flow Index were mixed at 83.33 and 62.62points against the previous session’s 85.40 and 62.59 points respectively. At this juncture, players should watch the trend and trade wisely in the midst of seemingly distribution phase and buying sentiment in some sectors and profit taking in others on a daily time frame. Also, trading volume pattern continues to oscillate, suggesting smart money are gradually taking profit amid revaluation of the market and short-term opportunities, looking at economic events in the face of policy direction of the government that look inconsistent and global economic outlook in the face of easing trade war and geopolitical tension.
To navigate the rest of Q2 and beyond profitably, it is important to run with economic events, fundamental and technical analysis, join investdata live sessions at noon every Monday, Wednesday and Friday’s trading session “and also get investdata technical toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent pullbacks. Despite the oscillating volume of transaction witnessed in recent time, it is time to position in undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider playing opportunity.
Oil prices at midweek were up to continue its oscillation, as it trades at $68.15 per barrel, in the midst of US consumer price index inching up and expectation of US and China trade agreement framework. Even as OPEC goes front and back on increasing production or cut output. As soft macroeconomic data emanating from US and China remain a concern for players. Even as US-Russia peace talk and ceasefire in Ukraine continued to shake. The trade tariffs negotiations seem to have fallout to signal global recession and weak economic activities, just as geopolitical tensions across many economies remain a major source of concern to the global economy and energy consumption in 2025. This trend may likely continue, while the up and down movement continues to drive volatility.
Midweek’s trading started in the green and it was sustained for the rest of the session, despite oscillating on position taking in some stocks and profit booking on others. This situation pushed the NGX’s index to intra-day high of 114,784.50bps from its lows of 114.017.50bps, before closing above its opening level at 114,659.10bps.
Market technicals were positive and mixed with lower volume when compared to previous session in the midst of breadth that favours the bulls on a buying sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s Sentiments Report showing 84% buy position and 16% sell volume. The total transaction volume index stood at 0.77points, just as energy behind the day’s performance was relatively strong, as Money Flow Index was inched up to read 62.62pts, from the previous day’s 62.59pts, indicating that funds entered the market.
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Index and Market Caps
At the end of the session, the composite NGXASI gained 560.10 basis points, closing at 114,659.11bps from 114,017.50bps, representing a 0.56% up, while market capitalization rose by N404.60bn to close at N72.30tr from the previous day’s N71.65tr, representing a 0.56% appreciation in value.
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The upturn was driven by position taking in the shares of Dangote Cement, MTNN, Oando, Beta Glass, Transcorp, FCMB, Ucap, Jaiz Bank and Accesscorp, among others, which impacted positively on Year-To-Date gain which inched up to 11.40% while Market capitalization gain stood at N14.57tr, representing 14.57% increase over its opening level for the year.
Mixed Sector Indices
Sectoral performance indexes were mixed, as the NGX Industrial goods and Energy indexes closed higher by 2.23% and 0.73% respectively, while the NGX Consumer goods index led the decliners, gaining 1.31% followed by Banking and Insurance with 0.48% and 0.37% respectively.
Market breadth was positive as gainers outnumbered losers in the ratio of 31:28, while activities in volume and value were down, after investors exchanged 471.15m shares worth N14.19bn, with volume driven by trades in FCMB, UBA, Accesscorp, Zenith Bank and Japaul Gold.
Beta Glass and ABC Transport were the best performing stocks, gaining 10% each, closing at N231.10 and N2.64per share respectively on the back of sentiment and market forces. On the flip side, Abbey Mortgagee Bank and NCR lost 7.50% and 7.09% respectively, closing at N5.55and N5.50per share, purely on selloffs and profit taking.
Market Outlook
We expect mixed sentiments as the NGX rebound ahead of May CPI report and profit taking, while investors are buying into value in hope of audited corporate earnings of March year end and others in the midst of portfolio reshuffling, even as few audited accounts are expected to hit the market with dividend announcement.
Also, sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing continued in the market with investors taking advantage of price correction to buy into value.
This is amid the volatility and pullbacks that add more strength to upside potential. Consequently, investors should take advantage of price correction. Also looking at the trends and events across the globe and domestically.
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The NGX 2025 market volatility has continued to create wealth for smart traders and discerning investors who took action, or are ready to take action. If you have been wondering:
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CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08179547605
