The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) opened the new trading week on a bullish note, reversing Friday’s pullback as renewed bargain-hunting, improved liquidity, and institutional participation lifted market sentiment. Investors appeared to be positioning ahead of Q3 earnings releases, taking advantage of earlier price corrections to accumulate fundamentally sound stocks.
Market activity was upbeat from the opening bell, with buying interest sustained across several mid- and large-cap counters. This positive sentiment was supported by stronger market breadth and increased turnover, underscoring the return of smart money flows to equities.
Index and Market Capitalisation Movement
The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose 0.79% to close at 141,659.00 points compared to 140,545.69 points in the previous session. Market capitalisation advanced by ₦704.38 billion to ₦89.63 trillion, marking one of the strongest starts to a trading week this quarter. The year-to-date (YTD) return strengthened to 37.63%, reflecting the ability of equities to outperform inflation and provide real returns for investors.
The recovery in market cap highlights renewed confidence in risk assets as investors seek safe havens from naira volatility, high interest rates, and sustained inflationary pressures.
Sector Performance and Market Breadth
Sectoral indices closed mixed as rotational trading continued, with investors seeking value in key sectors. The consumer goods index led the session’s gainers, boosted by renewed interest in BUAFOODS, NNFM, and CADBURY after prior price weakness. The banking index also closed higher, supported by demand for tier-1 names such as GTCO and ACCESSCORP as investors bet on improved earnings performance in the months ahead.
The insurance and oil & gas indices were largely flat as profit-taking activities offset fresh buying interest in a few counters. Nevertheless, ETRANZACT, REGALINS, MULTIVERSE, and BUAFOODS hit new 52-week highs, reflecting strong momentum and positioning by growth-focused investors.
Market breadth closed slightly positive, with 30 advancers and 29 decliners, pointing to an underlying bullish tone despite bouts of profit-taking.
Trading Data and Liquidity Conditions
Trading activity strengthened as volume and value improved significantly, signalling renewed participation from institutional players and high-net-worth investors. Total volume traded rose 27.69% to 555.12 million units valued at ₦24.08 billion across 31,578 deals.
UACN topped the volume chart with 67.17 million units, representing 12.10% of the total market volume, followed by REGALINS and ACCESSCORP with 10.31% and 6.79% respectively. GEREGU once again dominated the value chart, accounting for ₦10.28 billion or 42.68% of total turnover, reflecting consistent demand for power sector exposure. UACN and ZENITHBANK followed as investors positioned in fundamentally strong dividend-paying stocks.
Global Oil Market Update
Crude oil prices traded slightly higher on Monday as investors assessed potential supply disruptions following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Brent crude gained 0.6% to $67.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.8% to $63.21 per barrel, keeping both benchmarks within the $65–$70 range. The market remains supported by geopolitical tensions and U.S. calls for NATO allies to further restrict Russian oil imports, factors that could drive near-term volatility.
Technical View and Market Outlook
From a technical perspective, the NGX-ASI remains above its short- and medium-term moving averages, confirming a bullish market structure. The index’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 64.5, indicating moderate bullish momentum but leaving headroom for additional upside before entering overbought territory.
Key support levels are located at 140,500.00 and 139,800.00 points, while immediate resistance levels are seen at 142,200.00 and 143,000.00 points. A sustained breakout above these levels could open the way for further upside toward the 145,000.00 points psychological mark, whereas a pullback below support could trigger short-term profit-taking.
Gains, Performance, Positioning Strategy
Monday’s market advance was powered by strong buying in NNFM (+8.62%), UNILEVER (+8.41%), CADBURY (+7.48%), BUAFOODS (+6.73%), VITAFOAM (+4.39%), GTCO (+1.29%), ACCESSCORP (+0.75%), DANGSUGAR (+0.58%) and 22 others, which outweighed declines in 29 counters. LIVINGTRUST led the gainers’ table, while MCNICHOLS topped the losers’ list as some investors took profit on earlier rallies.
We expect the bullish momentum to extend into the next session as bargain-hunting and portfolio rebalancing continue. However, intermittent profit-taking may moderate the pace of gains.
Positioning Strategy: Active investors should consider accumulating fundamentally strong dividend-paying stocks on price pullbacks, particularly those with solid earnings prospects ahead of Q3 results. Traders may also take partial profits on high-flying stocks approaching overbought levels to lock in gains while leaving a position to benefit from further upside. Monitoring sector rotation trends, market breadth, and foreign exchange market stability will be crucial in aligning short-term trades with the broader market direction.
