Non-Oil Sector Lifts Nigeria’s 2021Q2 GDP By 5.01%

Latest data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday showed that the country’s economy soared by 5.01% in real terms in the second quarter of 2021, from 0.51% in the previous quarter, or the 6.1% contraction reported in the corresponding period of last year.

The growth is the highest percentage growth since 2019Q2 when the economy grew by 2.12%, from where it rose to 2.55% by 2019Q4.

Within the period, aggregate GDP stood at N39.123tr in nominal terms, up from the second quarter of 2020 aggregate of N34.023tr, indicating a 14.99% year-on-year

nominal growth rate, higher than -2.80% growth recorded in the second quarter of 2020 when economic activities slowed sharply at the outset of the pandemic.

The Q2 2021 nominal growth rate was also higher than 12.25% growth recorded in Q1 2021, despite a further dip in the oil sector with -12.65% year-on-year growth, from -2.21% in the previous second quarter. This resulted in real GDP negative growth of 7.13% in the first half of the year, compared to 0.8% in the corresponding period of last year, reflecting the lower oil output, following which the oil sector contributed 7.42% to total real GDP in Q2 2021, down from 8.93% and 9.25% in the second quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021 respectively.

On the other hand, the non-oil sector recorded a faster 6.74% year-on-year growth compared to 0.79% in the previous quarter, contributing 92.58% to total GDP, from 91.07% and 90.75% in Q2-20 and Q1-21, respectively).

Non-oil sector growth within the period was boosted by growth in Trade, Information, and Communication (Telecommunication), Transportation (Road Transport),

Electricity, Agriculture (Crop Production) and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco).

The latest growth, the NBS noted, is the third consecutive after the negative growth recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020, “indicating the return of business

and economic activity near levels seen prior to the nationwide implementation of COVID-19 related restrictions.”

For example, in 2020Q4, Nigeria’s economy grew by 0.11%, after contracting by 6.1% and 3.62% in the preceding two quarters; improving to 0.51% by 2021Q1.

“The steady recovery observed since the end of 2020, with the gradual return of commercial activity as well as local and international travel, accounted for the significant increase in growth performance relative to the second quarter of 2020 when nationwide restrictions took effect,” the bureau noted.

Year to date, it continued, real GDP grew 2.70% in 2021 compared to -2.18% for the first half of 2020

A further breakdown of the figure showed that average daily oil production stood at 1.61 million barrels per day (mbpd), a marginal 0.19mbpd drop from the average daily production of 1.81mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.10mbpd lower than the 1.72mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

On a sectoral basis, agriculture grew slower by 1.30%, from 2.28%; Industries contracted by 1.23% as against the growth of 0.94%; while Services grew faster by 9.27%, compared to -0.39%.

In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 55.66%, 23.78%, and 20.57% of overall output growth.