Nvidia’s upcoming results have the power to drive the S&P 500 higher than the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone last week or this Friday’s update on inflation.
This is the forecast from Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group, who says Wall Street is underestimating the extent to which the chipmaker’s earnings momentum can eclipse monetary policy shifts.
“We are predicting another meet and beat quarter for Nvidia,” says Nigel Green.
“The impact of that on the S&P 500 will likely be greater than the effect of Jerome Powell hinting at September rate cuts or the Personal Consumption Expenditures index due Friday.”
The stakes are immense. Nvidia now makes up over 6.5% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization, a weight so significant that its share price alone can swing the entire benchmark.
This dominance reflects how pivotal the company has become in powering the AI revolution, as its high-performance GPUs are essential for training large language models, data centers, and accelerating computing workloads across industries.
“Nvidia is not just another stock,” continues Nigel Green. “It’s the engine of the AI economy.
“Its results are a bellwether not only for tech, but for the direction of the global equity markets themselves.”
Last quarter, Nvidia delivered revenues above $26 billion, more than tripling year-on-year, with data center sales surging over 400%.
Consensus estimates for the coming results imply another rise, but the deVere CEO argues the market is still under-pricing the company’s ability to exceed expectations again.
“Yes, there are ongoing negotiations between Washington and Beijing regarding the export of high-end H20 chips, but our view is that these will ultimately yield constructive results,” says Nigel Green. “Both sides have too much at stake to derail the AI supply chain. The strategic rivalry between the US and China makes this delicate, but it doesn’t halt demand. On the contrary, it reinforces how vital Nvidia’s technology is.”
While some skeptics have raised concerns that AI exuberance is creating a bubble, Nigel Green rejects that view.
“We are not in an AI bubble,” he states. “The spending on infrastructure, chips, and software is not speculative froth—it is a structural investment wave that will continue into 2026 and beyond. This is transformative capital allocation, not a passing trend.”
His comments come as markets digest shifting monetary policy expectations. Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole last week were widely read as dovish, fueling bets on a September rate cut.
The July PCE index due this Friday is forecast to show inflation continuing to cool, with core PCE running at 2.6%—its lowest since March 2021. But Nigel Green insists Nvidia’s results will overshadow these developments.
“Investors have become conditioned to hang on every Fed nuance, but right now the market’s real catalyst is earnings,” he says. “Nvidia has more power to lift the S&P 500 than a modest recalibration of interest rate expectations.”
The numbers back this up. Technology companies now account for almost 30% of the index, with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft alone representing more than 15%.
The chipmaker’s rise has been so extraordinary that it contributed over one quarter of the S&P 500’s total gains in 2024. In short, one company has been responsible for reshaping the index’s trajectory.
“This is why Nvidia’s results matter so much,” says Nigel Green.
“If it meets and beats again, as we expect, the uplift in market sentiment will ripple across equities, driving benchmarks higher, boosting risk appetite, and increasing allocations to tech-heavy funds.
“We predict that this would be more immediate and impactful than the hints of a September rate cut made by the Fed last week.”
Investors are braced for a pivotal week. A strong Nvidia report, coupled with further evidence of easing inflation, could ignite a renewed rally that propels the S&P 500 into record territory.
Nigel Green concludes: “This is Nvidia’s market. Its earnings are the most important event for global investors this week, and likely this quarter. Savvy investors are paying close attention.”
