Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices rose 1% on Monday, driven by strong demand fueled by record U.S. travel for the July 4 holiday. Brent crude reached $69.20 and WTI climbed to $67.57, recovering from earlier declines despite OPEC+ announcing a higher-than-expected August output increase of 548,000 barrels per day. Actual supply additions have remained modest, mostly led by Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, market uncertainty lingered over pending U.S. tariff announcements, with no clear timeline or details released. Investors remained cautious, concerned that new trade measures could dampen global demand and economic activity.
Germany’s Industrial Output Rebounds in May On Auto, Energy Boost
Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.2% in May, outperforming expectations of flat growth, driven by strong gains in the automotive (+4.9%), energy (+10.8%), and pharmaceutical (+10%) sectors. While the broader economy still faces near-term risks such as trade tensions and low river levels, economists note signs of a modest cyclical rebound. The three-month average rose 1.4%, and recent policy efforts, including tax relief measures, are expected to support a gradual recovery after prolonged contraction.
Sweden’s June Inflation Surpasses Expectations, Dampening Rate Cut Hopes
Sweden’s headline inflation rose 0.5% in June and 2.9% year-on-year, above the Riksbank’s 2.4% forecast and economists’ estimates. Core inflation, excluding energy, hit 3.3%. The unexpected rise casts doubt on further rate cuts this year, despite the Riksbank lowering its key rate to 2.00% in June. With the next policy decision due August 20, today’s data supports holding rates steady as domestic demand is expected to recover. Final inflation figures will be released July 14.
Egypt’s Central Bank Expected To Hold Rates At 24% Amid Rising Inflation
The Central Bank of Egypt is expected to keep its main interest rates unchanged on Thursday, halting recent rate cuts due to rising inflation, according to a poll . Most forecast the deposit rate to stay at 24% and the lending rate at 25%, though seven anticipate a 100bps cut.
After reducing rates by a total of 325bps in April and May, inflation has rebounded to 16.8% in May from 12.8% in February. Despite efforts under an $8 billion IMF reform package to curb inflation—once as high as 38%—the central bank may now take a more cautious approach.
Nigeria, Netherlands Begin Renegotiation Of Outdated Tax Treaty
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has begun formal renegotiations of its Double Taxation Agreement with the Netherlands, marking the first such review since Nigeria’s landmark tax reform bills were signed into law by President Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
At a ceremony in Abuja, FIRS Chairman Dr. Zacch Adedeji emphasized the need to update the agreement in line with global tax standards and Nigeria’s new fiscal direction. Dutch Ambassador Bengt van Loosdrecht reaffirmed his country’s commitment to reaching a mutually beneficial deal. The Netherlands is the first foreign partner to align its tax treaty with Nigeria’s new tax framework ahead of the official launch of the Nigeria Revenue Service in January 2026.
