Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after President Trump issued a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, easing fears of immediate sanctions. Brent fell 0.7% to $68.71, and WTI dropped to $66.52.
The delay reduced supply concerns, but analysts warned potential sanctions could later reshape global oil flows. Markets also reacted to Trump’s new tariff threats and China’s slowing economy, both of which could dampen demand. Despite this, OPEC expects oil demand to stay strong through Q3, while U.S. crude stockpiles posted a slight increase.
Canada’s Inflation Hits 1.9% in June, Easing Rate Cut Expectations
Canada’s annual inflation rose to 1.9% in June from 1.7% in May, driven by higher prices for automobiles, clothing, and footwear, according to Statistics Canada. The monthly CPI rose 0.1%, in line with forecasts. With inflation staying below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint for the third month and strong job gains last month, economists say a rate cut is unlikely. Markets now place the odds of a July 30 rate cut at just over 10%. Durable goods prices jumped 2.7%, led by a 4.1% rise in passenger vehicle costs, while clothing and footwear prices climbed 2%.
India’s Inflation Hits 6-Year Low, Raises Rate Cut Hopes
India’s retail inflation fell to a six-year low in June, with a further drop expected in July, increasing expectations of another interest rate cut. Core inflation remains below 4%, pointing to weak demand. While the RBI cut rates by 50 basis points in June and maintained a neutral stance, analysts foresee another cut by year-end amid slowing auto sales and real estate. However, the RBI may wait for more economic data and clarity on global risks.
Ghana Warns Of Moderate Cocoa Output Decline Amid Rain-Induced Fungal Outbreak
Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, has warned of a potential decline in cocoa production due to excessive rainfall, low sunlight, and rising fungal diseases such as black pod. Farmers have raised concerns over reduced yields and long-term income loss. In response, COCOBOD has ramped up spraying efforts and aims to complete fungicide distribution before peak harvest. The country may miss its 2024/2025 target of 650,000 metric tons.
Nigeria’s Oil Production Rises to 1.5mbpd In June, Meets OPEC Target
OPEC’s June 2025 report shows Nigeria’s crude oil output rose to 1.505 million barrels per day, up 3.58% from May and the highest since January. The increase means Nigeria met its OPEC quota for the second time this year. Secondary sources reported even higher output at 1.547 million bpd.
Nigeria remains Africa’s top producer, ahead of Algeria. OPEC+ plans to raise production by 548,000 bpd in August. Oil exports to OECD countries also rose, while inventories increased but stayed below five-year and pre-pandemic averages. OPEC has warned of a potential global supply gap of 23 million bpd by 2030 without major investment.
