Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices fell on Thursday, with Brent closing at $63.38 and WTI at $59.14, after the U.S. advanced a new peace proposal for Ukraine and Russia. The plan includes territorial concessions and military reductions, terms Ukraine had previously rejected. President Zelenskiy said he would review the proposal, adding uncertainty around possible sanctions and weighing on market sentiment despite an earlier lift from a strong U.S. crude inventory draw.
BOJ Faces Growing Expectations for December Tightening
Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in December are rising, with over half of surveyed economists forecasting an increase to 0.75% amid the yen’s sharp decline. While Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urges the central bank to move slowly, analysts say the weak currency is adding inflation pressure and strengthening the case for action. The BOJ last raised rates in January, and most economists anticipate another move by March. Wage negotiations early next year remain a key factor, though few expect pay growth to exceed this year’s pace.
U.S. Home Sales Rise as Buyers Take Advantage of Lower Rates
U.S. existing home sales increased 1.2% in October to 4.10 million units, supported by lower mortgage rates despite high prices and a sluggish labor market. Inventory rose 10.9% from last year but remains below pre-pandemic levels, while the median home price climbed to $415,200. First-time buyers accounted for 32% of sales, and all-cash purchases made up 29%. Affordability challenges persist, with the median age of first-time buyers now 40.
South Africa Cuts Key Interest Rate Amid Improved Inflation Outlook
South Africa’s central bank lowered its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, citing improved inflation prospects and economic developments. The move was unanimous and comes after the inflation target was revised to 3%. Positive factors, including a credit rating upgrade, removal from the “grey list,” and a strong budget review, supported the decision. Governor Lesetja Kganyago emphasized that the bank expects to maintain inflation near the target over the medium term.
Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP Outlook: Steady But Uneven
Nigeria’s Q3 GDP is expected to show moderate growth, likely between 3.6% and 4.5%, building on the 4.23% recorded in Q2. Growth is being driven by strong non-oil sectors, including agriculture, trade, ICT, and industrial refining, while the oil sector contributes minimally. Inflation easing and FX stability support consumer-facing sectors and manufacturing. Overall, the economy is projected to maintain positive but uneven growth, with the Q3 data revealing the impact of policy measures on real economic activity.
