Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday as rising U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, along with economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, outweighed signs of increasing crude demand. Brent settled at $68.52 per barrel, down 0.3%, while WTI dropped 0.2% to $66.38. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels and distillates by 4.2 million, contrary to expectations. Despite a larger-than-expected crude drawdown, weak post-holiday gasoline demand and refinery rates near 94% pressured sentiment. Ongoing tariff threats and Fed uncertainty also clouded the economic outlook, though OPEC remains optimistic about global recovery in H2 2025.
UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Easing Hopes For Rapid Rate Cuts
Britain’s annual consumer inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June—the highest since January 2024—up from 3.4% in May. The jump, driven by higher fuel, transport, and food prices, has tempered market expectations for swift interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. UK inflation now leads major advanced economies, sitting about one percentage point above U.S. and eurozone levels. While some economists still expect a gradual easing of policy, the pace of future rate cuts may depend on labour market data.
Indonesia Cuts Rates Again As U.S. Tariff Deal Boosts Economic Outlook
Indonesia’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on Wednesday, marking the fourth cut since September. The move, aimed at boosting growth amid weak domestic demand and global trade concerns, follows a revised U.S. tariff deal that reduced proposed duties on Indonesian exports from 32% to 19%. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the deal supports exports and economic prospects, and signaled room for further cuts with inflation expected to stay low through 2026. The central bank maintained its 2025 growth forecast at 4.6%–5.4%.
Retail Sales Growth in South Africa Slows To 4.2% In May As Consumer Demand Softens
Retail sales in South Africa increased by 4.2% year-on-year in May 2025, a slowdown from the revised 5.2% growth recorded in April, according to figures released by Statistics South Africa on Wednesday. The easing pace reflects signs of softening consumer demand amid high inflation and tighter financial conditions.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly retail sales rose just 0.1% in May, pointing to a loss of momentum in short-term spending. Economists warn that this sluggish monthly performance may be an early indicator of waning confidence among consumers and could weigh on overall economic activity in the coming months.
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 22.22% in June, Third Consecutive Monthly Decline
Nigeria’s annual inflation rate dropped to 22.22% in June from 22.97% in May, marking the third straight month of decline, according to the national statistics agency. This follows a sharp revision in January after a rebasing of the inflation basket, though the rate of decline has since slowed. Food inflation rose slightly to 21.97% in June from 21.14% in May. The central bank, which has kept interest rates steady at its last two meetings, is set to meet again next week.
