Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
On Tuesday, oil prices dropped around 2% to a two-week low as markets reacted to potential OPEC+ output increases and worsening U.S.-China trade tensions. Brent closed at $64.25 and WTI at $60.42. Trump’s tariff policies and China’s retaliation have raised fears of a global slowdown, reducing oil demand forecasts. The trade dispute is already affecting major companies—UPS plans to cut 20,000 jobs, while GM delayed its outlook. BP posted a 48% profit drop. With OPEC+ possibly increasing production again in June, market sentiment remains weak.
Spain’s Q1 Growth Eases to 0.6%, Still Leads Major Euro Economies
Spain’s economy expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, down slightly from a revised 0.7% in Q4 2024, according to the National Statistics Institute. The slowdown was driven by weaker construction and services, though manufacturing and heavy industries remained strong. Unemployment edged up to 10.36%. Year-on-year, GDP rose 2.8%, below the 3.1% forecast. Despite the dip, Spain continues to outperform key euro zone peers like France, Italy, and Germany, which are seeing near-flat growth. The government expects a 2.6% annual expansion.
UK Food Price Inflation Hits 11-Month High, More Increases Likely
UK food price inflation rose to 2.6% in April, the highest in nearly a year, driven by rising retailer costs, according to the British Retail Consortium. Overall shop prices dipped 0.1% annually, but further inflation is expected as new levies and higher labor costs take effect. The Bank of England warns inflation could climb to 3.7% later this year, above its 2% target. Meanwhile, over half of HR directors plan to cut hiring due to the proposed Employment Rights Bill.
Kenya Slashes Budget Deficit Target to 4.5% Amid IMF Talks, Austerity Push
Kenya will lower its 2025/26 fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP from 5.1% and overhaul its 4.3 trillion shilling ($33 billion) budget, the cabinet announced. This move comes after last year’s protests forced President Ruto to drop $2.7 billion in tax hikes and revise fiscal plans. The new strategy, anchored on austerity, aims to cut debt and improve service delivery. The cabinet also passed the 2025 Finance Bill to close revenue gaps and enhance efficiency. Markets were rattled in March when Kenya and the IMF scrapped their final $3.6 billion program review. The IMF has since acknowledged Kenya’s request for a new deal to address its cash shortfall.
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Exports Hit $1.79 Billion in Q1 2025
Nigeria’s non-oil exports reached $1.791 billion in Q1 2025, a 24.75% increase from the previous year. Export volume grew by 243.44%, totaling 2.416 million metric tonnes. Cocoa and its derivatives, fertiliser, cashew nuts, and sesame seeds were key products, with cocoa making up 45% of exports. Exports to ECOWAS countries rose by 223%, indicating stronger regional trade.
The Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) is focused on diversifying the economy, with efforts aligned with the Renewed Hope Agenda to boost non-oil exports and reduce reliance on oil.
