Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices fell over 2% on Monday as progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks raised hopes of Iranian crude returning to the market. Brent dropped to $66.26 and WTI to $63.08 per barrel. Weak demand concerns intensified due to global economic headwinds, including tariffs and U.S. recession fears, with investors rattled by President Trump’s renewed pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Market liquidity was also thin following the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to boost output in May, though overproduction cuts may offset part of the increase.
Japan’s Inflation Jumps On Food Prices, BOJ Weighs Tariff Impact
Japan’s core inflation hit 3.2% in March, driven by rising food costs, complicating the Bank of Japan’s efforts to balance inflation control with economic risks from new U.S. tariffs. Broader price measures also rose, with sharp increases in items like rice and gasoline. As the BOJ prepares for its April 30–May 1 meeting, it is expected to hold rates but may delay future hikes due to global uncertainties. Governor Ueda signaled a cautious approach, citing cost-push inflation and potential fallout from U.S. trade actions.
Bank Indonesia To Keep Rates Steady As Rupiah Weakens Amid Trade Concerns
Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 5.75% this week to support the rupiah, which has fallen over 4% this year, despite concerns over slowing economic growth. U.S. tariffs on Indonesian goods, currently paused for 90 days, and domestic fiscal policies are putting pressure on the currency. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has warned that these tariffs could reduce Indonesia’s GDP growth by up to 0.5%. While economists predict rate cuts later this year, inflation is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, and GDP growth is forecast at 4.8%, slightly below previous expectations.
DR Congo Targets Ex-President Kabila Over Rebel Links
The Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended former President Joseph Kabila’s party and ordered the seizure of his and other party leaders’ assets, accusing them of supporting M23 rebels backed by Rwanda. The government labeled the actions as high treason and directed prosecutors to begin proceedings, though specific charges remain undisclosed. Kabila, who ruled from 2001 to 2019, has not responded. His party called the suspension unconstitutional. The M23 has gained ground in Congo’s conflict-ridden eastern region this year.
Nigeria’s Manufacturing Output Hits N33.43tn, But Growth Slows
Nigeria’s manufacturing output rose by 34.9% to N33.43 trillion in H2 2024, mainly due to inflation. However, real growth was just 1.7% as high costs and weak demand hit the sector.
Capacity use slightly improved to 57%, and local raw material sourcing increased. Investments fell by 35.3%, while energy and borrowing costs surged. Unsold goods rose sharply but dropped in the second half. MAN called for stable policies, lower interest rates, and better forex access to support growth.
