Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices declined on Wednesday, with U.S. crude settling at its lowest level this year after stockpiles rose more than expected. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $76.58 per barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 1.6% to $72.62.
Market uncertainty persists due to U.S. tariff threats, Russian sanctions, and economic concerns. Investors are also eyeing the OPEC+ meeting on Feb. 3, though major policy changes are unlikely. Libya’s oil exports have resumed, temporarily easing supply concerns.
Australia’s Inflation Hits Four-Year Low, RBA Rate Cut Likely
Australia’s inflation slowed to 2.4% in Q4, its lowest in nearly four years, as housing costs eased and core inflation cooled to 3.2%. With inflation now within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target, markets see an 80% chance of a rate cut from 4.35% at the RBA’s Feb. 18 meeting—the first since the pandemic.
Despite a strong labor market, moderating wage growth and easing price pressures strengthen the case for an early rate cut. The RBA, which previously expected inflation to hit its target by 2026, may adjust its outlook as global central banks continue easing policy.
U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record as Pre-Tariff Imports Surge, Slowing GDP Growth
The U.S. trade deficit in goods soared to a record high of $122.1 billion in December, driven by businesses rushing to import industrial supplies and consumer goods ahead of expected tariffs from President Trump’s administration. This surge in imports, which rose by 3.9%, was led by a significant 18.9% jump in industrial supplies, including petroleum. However, exports dropped 4.5%, contributing to the widening trade gap. The rise in imports, coupled with a drawdown in inventories, has raised concerns about a potential slowdown in GDP growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve revised its fourth-quarter GDP forecast down to 2.3%, from 3.2%, due to the weaker trade performance. As tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico loom, the trade deficit is likely to continue drawing attention in the coming months.
Namibia’s Unemployment Rate Hits 36.9% in 2023, Exceeding South Africa’s
Namibia’s unemployment rate rose to 36.9% in 2023, up from 33.4% in 2018, according to the statistics office. The country now has one of the highest unemployment levels globally, surpassing South Africa, where the rate fell to 32.1% in Q3 2024.
With 320,442 employed individuals out of 867,247 in the workforce, the broader unemployment rate, including discouraged workers, is 54.8%. President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah promised “radical shifts” to address high poverty and unemployment.
Dangote Refinery Slashes Nigeria’s Gasoline Imports Amid Production Surge
Nigeria’s gasoline imports have dropped to a seven-year low, averaging 110,000 barrels per day, as the Dangote refinery ramps up operations. With a goal to reach 650,000 barrels per day by Q1 2025, the refinery is reducing the nation’s reliance on foreign fuel. Gasoline stockpiles in Europe have surged in response, while Dangote plans to receive 12 million barrels of U.S. crude to further boost output. The refinery is also exporting refined products to several African and European countries.