Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Crude prices climbed on Monday as progress in U.S.-China trade talks boosted optimism about global demand. Brent crude rose 0.7% to $66.40 a barrel, while WTI advanced 0.75% to $61.96.
The gains followed last week’s rally driven by U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian energy firms. Analysts said the easing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers helped lift sentiment, though concerns linger that ineffective Russian sanctions could bring back supply pressures.
Russia Cuts Rate to 16.5% Amid Rising Inflation
Russia’s central bank lowered its key rate by 50 bps to 16.5%, even as it raised inflation forecasts for 2025–2026 due to a planned VAT hike and rising fuel prices. Governor Elvira Nabiullina said policy easing would continue cautiously as demand slows. Inflation hit 8.14% annually, with gasoline up 11.6%, prompting businesses to seek further rate cuts to boost growth.
U.S. Business Activity Rises, But Trade Tensions Weigh on Outlook
U.S. business activity strengthened in October, with the S&P Global Composite PMI climbing to 54.8 from 53.9 in September, driven mainly by the services sector. However, optimism weakened as Trump’s trade policies and tariffs dampened exports, pushing export orders to a six-month low. Companies also reported rising costs, growing inventories, and soft hiring. Despite moderate inflation and steady consumer spending, business confidence fell to one of its lowest levels in three years, reflecting concerns about tariffs and sluggish global demand.
Congo Cobalt Exports Await Approval
DRC cobalt producers are waiting to resume exports under a new quota system replacing a months-long ban that lifted prices. Companies must secure quotas, prepay royalties, and get compliance certificates. Q4 2025 limits are 18,125 tons; 2026, 77,400 tons. Major miners CMOC and Glencore got the largest shares. President Tshisekedi says the freeze boosted cobalt prices 92% since March.
Nigeria’s 2024 Fiscal Deficit Hits N13.5 Trillion
Nigeria’s fiscal deficit surged to N13.51 trillion in 2024, pushing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.62%, above the 3% legal limit. The fourth-quarter deficit alone reached N7.17 trillion, funded through domestic and foreign borrowing, project-tied loans, and budget support. The IMF projects a 4.7% deficit in 2025 due to weaker oil revenues. Total public debt rose to N152.40 trillion by June 2025, covering both foreign and domestic obligations.
