Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices dropped Friday, set for their first monthly decline since November, amid U.S.-Ukraine tensions, new tariffs, and Iraq’s plan to resume Kurdistan exports.
Brent fell 1.16% to $73.18 per barrel, while WTI dropped 0.84% to $69.76. The Trump-Zelenskiy dispute raised concerns over Russia’s market share, while U.S. tariffs fueled demand fears.
Iraq plans to export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan, but unresolved issues delay implementation. OPEC+ may delay output hikes, potentially boosting prices.
India’s Economy Expands 6.2% In Q4, On Government, Consumer Spending
India’s GDP grew 6.2% in October-December 2024, supported by higher government expenditure and improved rural demand. However, growth remained below peak post-pandemic levels, with manufacturing sluggish and uncertainties over U.S. trade policies looming.
The government now forecasts 6.5% GDP growth for the full year, requiring a 7.6% expansion in Q1 2025. While urban consumption is recovering, inflation and weak income growth remain concerns.
Canada’s GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations, Signals Economic Recovery
Canada’s GDP grew by 2.6% annualized in Q4, exceeding forecasts of 1.8%, driven by consumer spending, business investments, and exports. December GDP rose 0.2%, reversing November’s decline, aided by strong retail sales and tax breaks. Residential construction surged 3.9%, while business investment grew 0.7%. The BoC’s rate cuts have supported growth, but a strong Q4 may lead to a pause in further cuts.
Malawi Lowers Growth Forecast As Inflation Sparks Protests
Malawi has cut its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2% from 4.0% as protests over soaring prices spread across major cities. Inflation surged to 28.5% in January due to severe forex shortages, crippling imports of essentials like fuel and fertilizer. Finance Minister Simplex Chithyola Banda announced measures to boost foreign exchange earnings through agriculture, tourism, and mining while cracking down on the black market. Public debt remains high at 86% of GDP, with ongoing debt restructuring talks aimed at easing economic pressures.
Tinubu Signs N54.99tr Budget Amid Debt Concerns
President Bola Tinubu has signed the N54.99 trillion 2025 budget into law, nearly doubling the 2024 budget. The budget includes N3.65 trillion for statutory transfers and N13.64 trillion for recurrent expenditure.
Concerns have emerged over a N13.08 trillion fiscal deficit and N14.32 trillion debt servicing, which exceeds funding for critical sectors. Tinubu aims to reduce inflation to 15% and stabilize the naira, but rising debt may hinder economic growth.
