Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices fell over 2% on Wednesday as former U.S. President Donald Trump initiated diplomatic talks to end the Ukraine war, easing supply concerns. Brent crude dropped $1.82 to $75.18 per barrel, while WTI fell $1.95 to $71.37.
The decline follows three days of gains and comes as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts after strong U.S. inflation data. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks saw a larger-than-expected build, and Russia faces potential production cuts due to sanctions and refinery disruptions.
German Exports Rise, But Industrial Output Slumps Amid Economic Struggles
Germany’s exports grew 2.9% in December, defying expectations, while industrial output fell 2.4%, signaling continued economic challenges. For 2024, exports declined 1% due to weak Chinese demand, and the economy contracted for a second consecutive year. Despite a 2.8% drop in imports, the trade surplus reached €241.2 billion.
With high energy costs, weak competitiveness, and geopolitical uncertainties, exports are expected to fall again in 2025. Industrial production remains 10% below pre-pandemic levels, adding to concerns about Germany’s economic outlook.
NIESR Forecasts UK Growth, Limited Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Drop
NIESR forecasts the UK economy will grow by 1.5% in 2024, outperforming the Bank of England’s more cautious estimate. This growth is attributed to increased government spending, expected to boost economic activity. Inflation is projected to moderate to 2.4% in 2024, a much more optimistic outlook than the BoE’s forecast, which predicts inflation won’t return to the 2% target until 2027. NIESR also sees inflation peaking at 3.2% in January before steadily declining.
Despite the positive outlook, the Bank of England has limited room for further rate cuts, with only a quarter-point reduction expected in 2024 and another in 2026. NIESR also warns of long-term debt challenges, global trade risks, and pressures on governments to finance green transitions, all of which may impact the UK’s fiscal and economic stability moving forward.
South African Business Confidence Drops Slightly In January Amid Export Decline
South African business confidence remained strong in January, with the index at 120.0, slightly lower than December’s 121.0 but up from November’s 118.1. The dip was mainly due to reduced export volumes, although higher imports, vehicle sales, and tourism had a positive impact.
SACCI attributed the improved sentiment to new policies introduced by the coalition government in June. However, it expressed concern over U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which cuts financial aid to South Africa over its land reform policy and the genocide case involving Israel. South Africa dismissed the order as inaccurate and failing to acknowledge its historical struggles with colonialism and apartheid.
Cashew Nuts Outperform Cocoa, Surges Over 17% YTD, Industry Projected To Boost Nigeria’s Economy
Cashew nuts (SCSN) have risen 17% year-to-date, surpassing cocoa as the top-performing commodity in 2025, according to AFEX data. Starting at N1,270 per metric tonne, prices surged in February, breaking resistance levels above N1,400. The National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN) projects the industry could contribute $3.7 billion annually and create over 5 million jobs if supported. Dr. Ojo Ajanaku, NCAN President, emphasized the industry’s potential to produce over two million tonnes annually and stimulate significant economic growth, urging government support for further development.
