Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday, reaching a two-week high amid prolonged geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Iran. Brent crude settled at $65.63, while WTI closed at $63.41. Hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal have dimmed, likely extending sanctions on major OPEC+ producers. Meanwhile, Canadian wildfires have disrupted 344,000 barrels per day of oil output. In Europe, falling inflation raises prospects for rate cuts, which could boost oil demand.
China’s Factory Activity Contracts As U.S. Tariffs Bite
China’s factory activity shrank in May for the first time in eight months, with the Caixin/S&P Global PMI falling to 48.3—the lowest in 32 months. This decline highlights the growing impact of renewed U.S. tariffs, which have sharply reduced export demand. Output, new orders, and employment all weakened, while price competition intensified, especially in the auto sector. Beijing is considering new, possibly unconventional policy responses as trade talks with the U.S. stall.
U.S. Job Openings Rise, But Layoffs Signal Weakening Labor Market Amid Tariff Uncertainty
While U.S. job openings rose to 7.39 million in April, layoffs recorded their biggest increase in nine months, signaling a softening labor market. Fewer workers quit voluntarily, reflecting declining confidence. Economists point to the unstable implementation of Trump’s tariffs as a key source of business uncertainty, hindering workforce planning. Job gains were mainly in healthcare and professional services, while restaurants, manufacturing, and finance saw declines. The job openings rate edged up to 4.4%, but overall hiring remains cautious amid ongoing trade policy disruptions.
Egypt’s May Inflation Likely Rises On Base Effect, Fuel Price Adjustments
Egypt’s annual inflation is expected to have increased in May, driven mainly by a low base from the previous year and recent fuel price hikes. A Reuters poll forecasts urban inflation at 14.9%, up from 13.9% in April. The data will be released earlier than usual due to the upcoming Eid al-Adha holiday.
The rise follows April’s fuel price adjustments under IMF-backed reforms. Despite the uptick, inflation remains well below its September 2023 peak of 38%, helped by recent financial support and interest rate cuts.
Nigeria’s Business Growth Slows In May, But Stays Positive For 5th Month
Nigeria’s Business Performance Index stayed positive in May 2025 at +9.78, though slightly lower than April’s +12.29. This marks five straight months of business growth.
Manufacturing stayed strong, while Trade, Services, and Non-manufacturing grew more slowly. Agriculture fell to -1.77 due to poor weather and structural problems.
While production, profits, and jobs improved, business confidence dropped as investment and price levels declined. The cost of doing business also fell.
Major problems include poor power supply, lack of finance, high rent, forex issues, unstable policies, and rising insecurity.
