Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices were little changed on Monday after last week’s 4% drop, as investors awaited U.S.–Russia talks on August 15 aimed at ending the Ukraine war. Brent closed at $66.63 a barrel and WTI at $63.96. Analysts say prices are swinging between OPEC’s slower output growth and hopes for a ceasefire, while weaker Indian demand and rising South American supply weigh on the market. UBS cut its year-end Brent forecast to $62, citing ample supply and resilient output from sanctioned countries.
China’s Producer Prices Fall Sharply in July, Consumer Prices Flat Amid Weak Demand
China’s producer price index (PPI) dropped 3.6% year-on-year in July, exceeding forecasts, while consumer prices stayed flat, highlighting sluggish domestic demand and trade uncertainty. Factory-gate prices have been falling for over two years, and deflationary pressures persist despite measures to curb price competition. Core inflation rose to a 17-month high of 0.8%, but analysts warn recovery will remain fragile without stronger demand-side stimulus, as housing weakness, poor consumer sentiment, and fragile trade ties weigh on growth.
Japan’s Political Turmoil Threatens Budget Plans, Delays BOJ Rate Hike
Japan’s growing political instability is fueling fears of policy paralysis that could delay the 2025 budget and complicate the Bank of Japan’s rate hike plans. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces mounting pressure to resign after election losses, with ruling party lawmakers considering a September leadership race. A delayed decision could push leadership changes into next year, risking budget delays and forcing stop-gap measures. The uncertainty also clouds BOJ policy, with potential candidates holding diverging views on interest rates, making a cautious, wait-and-see approach more likely.
South Africa’s Manufacturing Output Strengthens In June
South Africa’s manufacturing output grew by 1.9% year-on-year in June, marking an improvement from the revised 0.7% increase recorded in May, according to data from the statistics agency. The stronger annual growth suggests a modest recovery in the sector’s performance.
On a monthly basis, however, factory production showed no growth in June, following a revised 2.2% increase in May, highlighting the sector’s uneven momentum despite the yearly improvement.
FG Releases N5.12bn for Pension Arrears To 90,000+ Retirees
The Federal Government has paid N5.12 billion in pension arrears to 90,689 retirees under the Defined Benefit Scheme, the Pension Transitional Arrangement Directorate (PTAD) confirmed. The payment covers pensioners from Customs, Immigration, Prisons, Police, Civil Service, and Parastatals departments.
According to PTAD, the move is part of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which includes pension rate increases, harmonisation, and health insurance for all DBS pensioners. This follows a June disbursement of N8.6 billion to over 148,000 retirees.
