Maria Agustina Patti
Pressure on crude oil futures decreased and prices rebounded slightly, supported by news that the U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce. The 90-day pause on raising tariffs helped avoid an important increase in U.S. duties on Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs from China. This has eased fears that worsening trade tensions would hurt economic activity and reduce fuel demand in the world’s two largest oil consumers.

However, uncertainty remains ahead of a key meeting on August 15 between the U.S. and Russian presidents, aiming to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. A peace deal could limit the potential increase in crude prices as it would set aside the risk of additional disruption to Russian oil and could open the door for more supply on the market. But if no deal is reached, tougher sanctions on Russian crude buyers could tighten supply, supporting prices.

Looking forward, traders could turn to new data releases to gauge demand levels. API and EIA crude inventory levels could affect the direction of the market while the market awaits the result of the U.S.-Russia peace talks.

Patti is Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness