Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices closed lower on Friday, ending the week down about 4% as fears of excess global supply and optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal outweighed geopolitical risks. Brent crude settled at $61.12 per barrel, while WTI closed at $57.44. Markets largely shrugged off the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, focusing instead on forecasts from the IEA showing supply exceeding demand next year, which kept prices under pressure despite lingering geopolitical tensions.
UK Economy Contracts Ahead of Budget
Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in the three months to October, missing expectations of flat growth and marking no expansion since June. Services, construction, and manufacturing all weakened, adding to pressure on the government ahead of its budget. The data has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Sterling dipped slightly while government bond prices rose following the report.
India’s inflation rises slightly but remains below target
Retail inflation in India increased to 0.71% in November from 0.25% in October as the decline in food prices slowed, but it stayed below the RBI’s 2% target for the third consecutive month. Core inflation held at 4.2–4.3%. With moderate inflation and strong economic growth, the central bank has room for another rate cut. Food prices fell 3.91% year-on-year, while vegetable prices dropped 22.2%. Cereal prices rose slightly, and pulses declined 15.86%. The RBI has already lowered rates by 125 basis points this year and will monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs and post-festive growth trends.
South Africa’s Inflation Outlook Falls After New 3% Target
Inflation expectations in South Africa have eased following Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s announcement of a 3% target. A central bank survey showed average projections of 3.8% for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027, down from 4.2% previously. Businesses and unions expect slightly higher figures. The survey comes ahead of the Reserve Bank’s January 29 interest rate decision, following its November 20 rate cut. The lower target aims to boost economic competitiveness and create room for future rate reductions.
Nigeria Sees Drop In Staple Food Prices In October 2025
Staple foods including rice, beans, garri, and tomatoes became more affordable in October 2025, driven by higher harvests and better supply. Prices varied across states and regions, reflecting local market conditions. Inflation eased, with headline inflation at 16.05% and food inflation falling sharply to 13.12%. The decline in food prices is expected to ease household budgets ahead of the festive season.
