Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices held near a one-week high on Wednesday, driven by supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S. Brent crude settled at $76.04 per barrel, while WTI rose to $72.25, the highest levels since February 11.
A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian pipeline cut crude exports by up to 40%, reducing supply by 380,000 barrels per day. In the U.S., extreme cold threatens to lower North Dakota’s oil production by 150,000 bpd. There is also speculation that OPEC+ may delay its planned supply increase in April.
While Washington pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, analysts believe easing sanctions is unlikely to boost Russian oil flows. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks in Gaza and potential U.S. tariffs add to the uncertainty in global oil markets.
New Zealand Cuts Interest Rates to 3.75%, Signals More Easing Ahead
New Zealand’s central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, with further cuts expected in April and May to support a struggling economy. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) now forecasts a terminal rate lower than its November projection, aiming for 3% by year-end as inflation moderates. The move aligns with market expectations, weakening the New Zealand dollar and boosting bank bill futures. While the RBNZ remains ready for inflation shocks, global uncertainties, including U.S. tariff policies, pose risks. Major banks quickly followed with mortgage rate cuts.
UK Inflation Hits 10-Month High at 3.0%
UK inflation surged to 3.0% in January, exceeding forecasts of 2.8% and marking a 10-month high. The rise was driven by smaller-than-usual declines in airfares, higher fuel and food prices, and an increase in private school fees due to new VAT charges. Services inflation climbed to 5.0%, adding pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) as it weighs interest rate cuts.
Sterling briefly strengthened before stabilizing. Analysts warn that upcoming hikes in employer taxes and the minimum wage could sustain inflationary pressures. The BoE projects inflation to peak at 3.7% in Q3 2025, mainly due to energy costs, but expects a cooling job market to ease wage growth and inflation risks.
Kenya’s Tourism Earnings Projected To Reach $5bn In 2024, Reflecting Strong Growth
Kenya’s tourism industry is on track for a remarkable boost in earnings, with projections indicating a rise to 650 billion Kenyan shillings (approximately $5 billion) this year, up from 452.2 billion shillings in 2023. This optimistic forecast was shared by Tourism Minister Rebecca Miano on Wednesday, who emphasized that the sector’s 2024 earnings would reflect a 20% increase compared to the previous year.
Tourism, alongside key sectors like tea exports and remittances, remains a cornerstone of Kenya’s foreign exchange revenue. This surge in tourism earnings highlights the sector’s resilience and its continuing importance to the country’s economic growth and global appeal as a prime travel destination.
Non-Oil Revenue Jumps 16.4% in November, Oil Falls Short of Target
Nigeria’s non-oil revenue hit N1.90 trillion in November 2024, marking a 16.4% rise from October and exceeding the target by 53.19%. This growth was driven by higher corporate tax receipts and customs duties. Meanwhile, oil revenue rose by 42.63% to N0.52 trillion but fell short of the target by 70.46%, due to production disruptions and external factors. The strong non-oil performance highlights Nigeria’s diversification efforts, though oil sector reforms remain necessary for fiscal stability.
