Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices ended nearly unchanged on Thursday after rebounding from early losses. Brent crude settled at $75.02 per barrel, down 0.21%, while WTI dipped 0.11% to $71.29.
A potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal initially pressured prices on fears that eased sanctions could boost global supply. However, the U.S. decision to delay tariff actions until April helped stabilize the market.
Rising U.S. crude inventories and inflation concerns also influenced sentiment, shifting the focus from supply constraints to expectations of steady Russian exports.
Japan’s Wholesale Prices Surge, Strengthening Rate Hike Expectations
Japan’s wholesale inflation surged to 4.2% in January, marking the highest annual rise since June 2023 and reinforcing expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike. Rising food and energy costs, along with a weaker yen, continue to push up import prices and corporate costs. Analysts remain cautious, noting that while wages are rising, high living costs may dampen consumption. Market bets suggest an 80% chance of a BOJ rate hike by July, with inflationary pressures likely keeping the central bank on track for further increases.
New Zealand Manufacturing Expands After Two Years
New Zealand’s manufacturing sector grew in January for the first time in nearly two years, with production and new orders turning positive, according to a survey released Friday.
The BNZ-Business NZ Manufacturing Index rose to 51.4 from 46.2 in December, signaling expansion. New orders increased to 50.9 from 46.8.
“It’s a positive start to 2025,” said BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel, noting the sector’s shift from contraction to growth.
Rwanda Keeps Interest Rate at 6.5%, Inflation Remains in Check
Rwanda’s central bank kept its key interest rate at 6.5% for the second consecutive meeting, expecting inflation to remain within its 2%-8% target range despite a recent rise to 7.4% in January. Governor John Rwangombwa attributed the increase to delayed harvests due to unfavorable weather. The bank raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 6.5% from 5.8% but expects 4.1% in 2026. Economic growth for 2023 likely exceeded the 8.3% projected in November, with the 2024 forecast under review. Geopolitical risks remain a concern.
Nigerian Lawmakers Approve N54.99Tr 2025 Budget
Nigerian lawmakers have approved a 54.99 trillion naira ($36.6 billion) budget for 2025, surpassing President Bola Tinubu’s revised proposal of 54.2 trillion naira. The increase comes as lawmakers raised the amount before granting approval, with the budget now set to be sent to Tinubu for signing into law. A provision of $200 million was made to address gaps from the U.S. suspension of aid to Nigeria’s health sector. Tinubu’s government plans to focus spending on security, infrastructure, and measures to reduce the impact of rising living costs. Despite swift reforms that led to a cost-of-living crisis, inflation is expected to fall to 15% from a three-decade high of 34.8% in January. The budget also includes a projected deficit of 1.52% of GDP, or about 13 trillion naira.
