Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices hovered near a seven-week high on Tuesday, driven by hopes that ongoing U.S.-China trade talks could boost global demand. Brent crude slipped 17 cents to $66.87 per barrel, while WTI dropped 31 cents to $64.98. The talks, extending into a second day in London, aim to resolve tensions over export controls. Meanwhile, the World Bank cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, citing trade uncertainties. On the supply front, Saudi Aramco plans to send 1 million fewer barrels to China in July, signaling limited extra output despite OPEC+ plans to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day.
Brazil’s Inflation Cools, But Rate Hike Still On The Table
Inflation in Brazil slowed to 0.26% in May and 5.32% over 12 months, both below expectations. While this marks a continued decline, annual inflation remains above the central bank’s 3% target range for the eighth month.
With a key interest rate decision due June 17–18, markets mostly expect the bank to hold rates at 14.75%. However, some economists still anticipate a final hike, citing strong economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures, despite signs the tightening cycle may be nearing its end.
U.S. Small-Business Optimism Rises On Trade Relief, But Uncertainty Grows
U.S. small-business optimism rose in May, with the NFIB Index hitting 98.8 after a tariff cut on Chinese goods boosted sales expectations. However, uncertainty grew as Trump’s tax bill stalled in the Senate, raising concerns about policy direction.
Firms reported low inventories and stronger sales outlooks, but signs of a cooling labor market and rising tax concerns suggest ongoing challenges. NFIB’s chief economist warned the economy remains clouded by unresolved policy issues.
Zimbabwe to Stop Lithium Concentrate Exports by 2027
Zimbabwe will ban lithium concentrate exports from January 2027 to encourage local processing, said Mines Minister Winston Chitando. The country had already banned raw lithium ore exports in 2022. Chinese companies, which dominate the industry, are now building lithium processing plants in Zimbabwe.
Two major projects are underway at Bikita Minerals and Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe. Although the government had asked miners to submit refinery plans by March 2024, it relaxed the rule after global prices dropped. Still, Chinese firms have invested over $1 billion in Zimbabwe’s lithium sector since 2021.
$5B Nigeria-Aramco Oil Loan Stalls Amid Falling Crude Prices
Nigeria and Saudi Aramco are struggling to finalize a $5 billion oil-backed loan, the largest of its kind for Nigeria and Aramco’s first at this scale in the country. Talks began after President Tinubu met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November. However, falling crude prices—Brent has dropped from $82 to $65—have made banks wary and may reduce the loan size. Nigeria may now need more oil to secure the deal, but production is limited by years of under-investment. The loan is part of Tinubu’s broader $21.5 billion foreign borrowing plan. Both governments and Aramco declined to comment.
