Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices surged over 4% Wednesday—Brent to $69.77, WTI to $68.15—after news the U.S. may evacuate its embassy in Iraq due to rising security threats.
Traders reacted to Iran’s threat to strike U.S. bases if nuclear talks collapse and Trump’s skepticism over a deal.
OPEC+ plans to raise output, but strong internal demand may balance it. A possible U.S.-China trade deal, falling U.S. crude stocks, and rising gasoline use also supported prices. Rate cut hopes from easing inflation added to the bullish sentiment.
UK Pay Growth Slows Sharply As Unemployment Hits 4-Year High, Boosting Case For Rate Cuts
UK wage growth slowed more than expected, and unemployment rose to 4.6%—the highest since 2021—between February and April, according to official data. Pay excluding bonuses grew by 5.2%, the weakest since September, while payrolls fell by 109,000 in May, the largest drop since COVID-era 2020. The slowdown follows April’s rise in social security contributions and a higher minimum wage. These trends could support interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with markets now expecting reductions in August and November.
Bank of France Warns Of Slower Growth As Trade Tensions Hurt Outlook
France’s central bank has cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.7%, citing weak exports and U.S. trade tensions. Most of the impact comes from uncertainty, not tariffs themselves.
Quarterly growth stays flat at 0.1%. Longer-term projections are also down, with growth seen at 1.0% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.
Domestic demand will support the economy this year, while inflation is now expected at 1.0%, rising to 1.8% by 2027 due to lower energy prices.
Kenya Trims Growth Outlook For 2025 and 2026, Cuts Lending Rate For Sixth Straight Time
The Central Bank of Kenya has scaled back its economic growth projections, lowering the 2026 forecast to 5.4% from April’s 5.6%, according to Governor Kamau Thugge. This follows Tuesday’s downward revision of the 2025 growth estimate to 5.2% from 5.4%.
To support the slowing economy, the bank also cut its benchmark lending rate for the sixth consecutive meeting—this time by 25 basis points to 9.75%, following a sharper 75 basis point cut at the previous session.
Floods, Insecurity Push 100 Million Nigerians Into Food Crisis
Nigeria’s food crisis is worsening as floods and insecurity devastate agriculture. A report by SBM Intelligence says over 180,000 farmlands were destroyed across 31 states, displacing 1.2 million people. Desertification and violent attacks have forced many farmers to abandon their land.
As a result, 100 million Nigerians are food-insecure, with nearly 19 million facing acute hunger. The report calls for urgent action to address insecurity, support displaced farmers, and tackle climate threats.
