By Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices fell over $1 on Tuesday to a four-year low, with Brent at $62.82 and WTI at $59.58. The drop follows rising tensions between the U.S. and China as new tariffs take effect.
The U.S. will impose a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, while China refuses to lift its 34% retaliatory tariff, vowing to resist pressure. The trade conflict has raised concerns about slowing global demand.
Oil and stock markets continued to decline after hours. Trump also announced possible nuclear talks with Iran, though Iran insists they’ll only engage indirectly.
Russia Faces Economic Slowdown Amid Inflation, High Rates, Falling Oil Prices
Russia’s economy is losing steam, with GDP growth plunging to 0.8% in February from 3% in January. War-driven spending had kept growth above 4% in recent years, but inflation above 10%, labour shortages, and soaring interest rates at 21% are now weighing heavily.
Key sectors like trade, transport, and mining are declining, while industrial output has nearly flatlined. Falling oil prices and global market fears add pressure, and only military-linked industries continue to expand.
U.S. Small-Business Sentiment Dips Sharply as Trade Fears Grow
Confidence among U.S. small businesses fell for the third month in a row in March, with the NFIB Optimism Index dropping 3.3 points to 97.4 — the largest decline since mid-2022. Initial optimism after Trump’s election has waned amid uncertainty over trade policies and shifting priorities. Expectations for better business conditions and higher sales have fallen significantly, while hiring and pricing plans show mixed signals. The survey was conducted before the announcement of steep new tariffs, which have since sparked global market concerns and warnings of economic slowdown.
Kenya Cuts Key Rate Again To Drive Private Sector Lending
In a surprise move, Kenya’s central bank cut its policy rate by 75 basis points to 10%—its fifth consecutive reduction—to stimulate private sector credit growth. The rate corridor was narrowed to ±75 basis points to better anchor interbank rates, and the discount window rate was lowered to support bank liquidity. Inflation edged up slightly to 3.6% in March but stayed within the target range. The bank upheld its 2025 growth outlook at 5.4% and revised the current account deficit forecast down to 2.8% of GDP.
AfDB Unveils $2.2bn Plan To Strengthen Nigeria’s Agriculture
The African Development Bank (AfDB) is mobilizing $2.2 billion to establish agro-processing zones in 28 Nigerian states. AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina launched the first phase in Kaduna, covering five states with $500 million in initial funding. The second phase is pending board approval. Partners include Afreximbank, the Arab Bank for Economic Development, Sahara Farms, and institutions from France and the U.S. The project aims to cut post-harvest losses, improve value chains, and reduce Nigeria’s $4.7 billion annual food imports.
