Osama Al Saifi

Crude oil futures remain capped below USD 64 per barrel. Supply disruptions and geopolitical risks supported prices, while growing concerns over global demand and the prospect of increased output from OPEC+ limited their upside. Wildfires in Canada have reduced production, and ongoing tensions involving Iran and Russia have provided a measure of support to prices.

However, the expected rise in supply from the OPEC+ alliance has limited the scope for further gains. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain a significant drag on sentiment. The OECD’s recent downgrade to global growth forecasts, citing the economic impact of protectionist measures, highlights the vulnerability of global demand.

The outlook for crude remains cautious. A forecast draw in U.S. crude inventories may offer temporary support, but without a shift in the broader supply-demand balance or a more constructive macroeconomic backdrop, prices are likely to remain range-bound.

Al Saifi is Managing Director for MENA at Traze