Market Update for the Week Ended March 8 and Outlook for March 11-15
The first full trading week of March ended Friday, with the Nigerian Exchange closing positive, thereby halting two successive weeks of pullbacks and selloffs on improved traded volume and inflow of financial reports with corporate actions. This was despite the higher and longer yields’ outlook in the fixed income market, as the Central Bank of Nigeria announcing a huge over-subscription at its latest Treasury Bills primary market auction with the 364-day tenor bill rising to 21.49% from previous auction’s 19% yield. This was amid the prevailing runaway inflationary environment even as the equity market enters the peak of its earnings reporting season for December year-end audited accounts. Already, corporate and economic data released so far remain weak and mixed, impacting the market and company share prices amid the changing market fundamentals and prevailing economic realities.
During the week, companies like Nascon presented its audited financials for the year ended December 31, 2023, with top and bottom lines showing impressive growth, thereby standing out in its sector, following which the directors recommended a bonus of two ordinary shares for every 100 units held; while the numbers from Africa Prudential came below market expectation, with gross earnings and profit level declining by 4.36% and 35.57% respectively. This translated to 48 kobo earnings per share and dividend of 45 kobo for 2023, which represents 10% dividend cut from 50 kobo paid in 2022. The NGX Group also presented its audited numbers, recommending a final dividend of 75 kobo; while Multiverse and Abbey Mortgage offered five and four kobo respectively for approval by their shareholders.
Market players look to more inflow of earnings next week, especially from the banking sector that has been the most consistent in dividend payment. The numbers from first-tier banks, especially, are expected to support the buying sentiment in the market, as the share prices of banks recently pulled back, thereby becoming attractive for dividend players ahead of their audited 2023 full year results.
Meanwhile, all eyes are still on the expected February consumer price index scheduled for release February 15, as investors and traders digest the mixed numbers released so far, while the index’s action rebounded, breaking out the 100,000bps mark that turned a resistance before now and 101,000 psychological line on a daily chart to trade above the T line on a low traded volume in the face of the market entering its markup phase on a daily time frame. Just as the ongoing portfolio rebalancing continued in the midst of alternative investment windows and rising inflation among other economic headwinds which has been a concern for the investing public and businesses.
Technically, the nation’s equity market remains at its overbought region on a weekly time frame, amid calls for cautious trading even as sentiment reports for the period reveals buying sentiment of 87%, while MFI and RSI reads 83.03 and 76.29 points respectively looking up, as index action trades above the T-line on a increasing momentum. The reversal of trend and the negative breadth for the period were in the face of improved bargain hunting as dividend income investors took advantage of the correction to position dividend paying companies with low valuation and strong fundamental. As the ongoing government reforms are yet to put the economy on the path of recovery, or progress due to a mismatch of policies, and even somersault altogether.
The positive sentiment and outing in the global stock markets continued on key positive macroeconomic reports and clarity on rate cut in the coming months from US and EU apex banks. As the dovish expectation and strong corporate earnings boosted market sentiment, despite the profit taking in some domain. The MSCI index for the week close higher by 0.8%. The expected macroeconomic data from US, Europe and Asia are likely to shape market sentiment in the new week.
Traders and investors should, therefore, wake up and trade intelligently and smart to avoid being trapped in any position, by combining fundamental, technical, sentiment and commonsense analyses. This is no joke, it is exciting and scary time on the Exchange at the moment. Now is the time for action, if you must protect your investment, or capital by taking profit and targeting defensive stocks that are stable and established with strong/compact shareholding structures, relatively small outstanding shares, consistent in dividend payment and leaders in their sector or industry.
To navigate the rest of Q1 market volatility and its mixed outlook profitably using fundamental and technical analyses to run, join Investdata’s Live Sessions at noon every Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, also get investdata Technical Toolbox to play the current state of the market do suggest that discerning investors are gradually becoming greedy, while others are fearful, as seen in the recent breakout of bullish channel to continue the markup phase. As volume of transaction witnessed within the week remain low traded volume, it is time to go shopping for undervalued stocks, sectors and the next insider dealing opportunity.
Oil price gave up its weekly gain to trade lower at $82.08per barrel following the clarity of rate cuts in coming months by Fed and ECB in the face of positive macroeconmic data emanating from different domain amid the lingering tensions in the Middle East and disruption in oil output and demand outlook. Just as Russia-Ukraine war has lingered over two year now, and is indeed escalating. The up and down movement of oil prices also continues to drive volatility across different investment windows.
Movement Of NGXASI
It was five straight sessions of bull-run on the NGX, as the NGXASI recovering from the immediate reactions to the hike in Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) hike by the apex bank in the face of mixed numbers from the quoted companies and higher yields in the fixed income space. During the week, there were also the listing of Transpower and buying interest in MTNN, Dangote Sugar, Nascon, FBNH and others that weighed on the index action positively on a low traded volume in the midst of buying sentiments and volatility, ahead of more audited earnings and corporate actions.
Trading for the week opened on positive note, halting previous losses as the index inched up by 0.10% on Monday. This trend was sustained throughout the week with 0.35%, 0.40%, 0.75% and 0.99% respectively for Tuesday, wedensday, Thursday and Friday, following the buying interest in Transpower and other stocks on the exchange. This brought the week’s total gain to 2.61%, against the previous week’s 3.27% negative position.
Consequently, the benchmark NGX All Share index gained 2,578.87bps, closing at 101,330.85bps, from previous week’s 98,751.98bps closing level, after touching an intraweek high of 101,788.28bps and a low of 98,376.48bps. Market capitalisation also rose signaificantly by N3.3tr to N57.29tr, representing a 6.03% appreciation in value, as a result of listing by introduction 7.5 billion ordinary shares of Transpower at 240 per share.
The top advancers’ chart for the week was dominated by low, medium and large cap companies in the midst of buying sentiment and position taking in stocks that had pulled back in recent time. Also notable was the fact that market players are still trading with caution, as they reducing their position in some sectors and stocks ahead of more earnings reports and unfolding events in the monetary and fiscal arena.
Market technicals for the period were positive and mixed as losers outnumbered gainers in the ratio of 56:22 on a buying sentiment as revealed by investdata sentiment report showing 87% ‘buy’ volume and 13% sell position. Money Flow Index was up at 83.03 points from the previous week’s 82.85points, an indication that funds entered the market on a weekly time frame.
Technical View
The NGX index’s action rebounded to form a piercing pattern, that signal a bullish reversal after breaking out the psychological lines of 100,000 and 101,000 strong resistance level to test 101,788.00 that usher in uptrend and recovery phase on the weekly chart. We noted that the 98,000 mark has turned a supoort level on the daily time frame. The market is at critical zone as all eyes are on the banks financials to support market fundamentals and attract inflow again. Also, we note that investors are taking long-term positions in the face of pullbacks and volatility. Amid position taking by dividend investors now increasing their holdings in the midst of a bullish outing.
We note also that buyers are in control, despite the mixed sentiment and negative market breadth, as the index is trading above the 50-Day Moving Average on the weekly time frame.
Bearish Sectoral Indices
The sectoral indexes for the week closed red, save for NGX Industrial Goods that closed higher by 1.59%, while NGX Insurance led the decliners after losing 5.22%, followed by Banking and Consumer Goods with 1.40% and 1.21% respectively. Just as NGX Energy finished flat.
Activities in volume and value were up as investors exchanged 2.16bn shares worth N108.82bn, compared to previous week’s 1.88bn units valued at N34.15bn. Volume was driven by Financial Services, Conglomerates and Utilities industry, boosted specifically by Transcorp, Transpower, UBA, FBNH and Accesscorp.
The best performing stocks for the week were Transpower and Juli Pharmacy which gained 46.38% and 32.53% respectively, closing at N351.30 and N4.97 per share on market sentiments. On the flip side, Guinness Nigeria and ETI lost 17.55% and 17.01% respectively, at N42.05 and N20.00per share, on profit taking respectively.
Outlook for the week
We expect the mixed sentiment to continue on low valuation in the midst of more corporate earnings and higher yields outlook in the fixed income space. Bargain hunters are also taking advantage of the pullbacks to buy into dividend stocks. Investors are watching with rapt attention as the government takes steps to resolve the country’s lingering FX challenges which has thrown many companies into a negative earnings positions.
However, retracement to the 94,000bps level and below is possible on correction as global and domestic events unfold.
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CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
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