Strong indications emerged on Tuesday that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may cut the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) for the first time since July 2016, when it meets as scheduled on May 22, 2018.
This followed yet another decline in the nation’s inflation rate for the 15th consecutive month so far, when it decelerated to 12.48% in April, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, from N13.34% year-on-year in March.
In July 2016, the nation’s inflation stood at 17.1%.
The April figure, according to Statistician-General of the Federation, Dr. Yemi Kale, the April inflation figure is the lowest since February 2016.
Those who think April’s deceleration is pointer to a rate cut argue that the MPR at 14% is now well below the 12.48% inflation rate.
Food inflation however continues to be the biggest driver, at 14.8% growth in April, down from 16.08%; while Core inflation fell to 10.9% from 11.2%.
Month-on-Month, inflation in April rose 0.83%, slightly lower than the 0.84% recorded in March; with the highest increases recorded in potatoes, yam and other tuber crops, followed by staples- bread and cereals, as well as oil and fats, fruits and vegetables, coffee, tea and cocoa, milk, cheese and eggs and fish, all of which impacted the food sub-index, which on a month-on-month basis climbed by 0.91%, compared to 0.9% in March.
Core inflation also rose 0.87% MoM in April, from 0.84%, owing to impact of rise in prices of fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, garments and clothing materials and other articles of clothing and clothing accessories; hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment; as well as paramedical services and pharmaceutical products.
Urban inflation for the month rose by 12.89%, a decline from 13.75% recorded in March 2017, while MoM, it increased by 0.85%, compared to 0.86%; just as rural inflation climbed by 12.13%, compared to 12.99%; even as the MoM rate remained at 0.82%.
On a state-by-state basis, inflation was at its peak year-on-year in Kebbi, where it stood at 15.94%; followed by Rivers with 15.01%; and 14.93% in Kogi; while the lowest figures were recorded in Kwara at 9.77%; Delta, 10.46% and Benue, 11.19%. MoM, it was still Kebbi in the lead at 1.73%; Rivers, 1.72%, just as Lagos came third with 1.6% growth. The lowest growth YoY was recorded in Bauchi, Kano, Kaduna, where inflation rates growth was negative at -0.01%; -0.14% and -0.18 respectively.
Food inflation YoY was highest also in Kebbi, 17.92%; Baylesa, 17.85%; and Nasarawa, 17.71%; and lowest in Gombe, 12.46%; Benue, 12.27%; and Kogi, 10.95%. The highest MoM rise in food Inflation rates were Lagos, 2.49%; Ekiti and Kebbi, 2% each; and Rivers, 1.98%; just as Kaduna recorded the lowest with a 0.61% rate decline; followed by Benue’s 0.56%; and Kano, 0.25%.