Bas Kooijman

United States

U.S. markets edged modestly lower this week as fresh tariff announcements from the Trump administration dominated headlines but failed to significantly rattle investors. The Nasdaq Composite fared best among major indexes, declining only slightly as strength in tech stocks provided a cushion. In contrast to prior tariff cycles, markets appeared less reactive, suggesting investor sentiment has adjusted to ongoing trade tensions.

Tariffs were introduced on a range of countries, including South Korea, Japan, Canada, South Africa, and Brazil, with copper imports specifically targeted at a steep 50% rate — leading to a sharp spike in U.S. copper futures. Despite the geopolitical overhang, earnings optimism from Delta Air Lines helped boost the airline sector broadly, with the carrier signaling improving demand and reinstating its 2025 guidance.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed a split among policymakers. While the majority expect rate cuts later this year, some remain hesitant, suggesting cuts may be delayed into 2026. Treasuries rallied briefly after the minutes’ release but finished lower, and the investment-grade bond market underperformed. NVIDIA briefly crossed the $4 trillion market cap threshold, further bolstering tech sentiment and reinforcing the dominance of mega-cap growth stocks.

Europe

European markets posted modest gains, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index rising 1.15%, buoyed by hopes of new trade agreements with the U.S. However, sentiment turned more cautious after President Trump announced forthcoming tariff measures targeting European goods. Country indexes finished higher across the board, led by Germany’s DAX (+1.97%) and France’s CAC 40 (+1.73%).

In the UK, economic signals were mixed. GDP contracted for the second consecutive month in May, weighed down by lower production and construction output. Despite the monthly setback, the economy grew 0.5% over the last three months. The housing market showed early signs of stabilization, with Halifax reporting a slight rebound in buyer activity. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is reportedly preparing a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme to support first-time buyers.

Elsewhere, eurozone retail sales data showed consumer spending remained soft, declining 0.7% in May. Industrial data also varied: German industrial production rose by 1.2%, recovering from April’s drop, although exports weakened. Italy, however, saw output slip again, highlighting continued challenges in its manufacturing sector. Overall, while market optimism is held, underlying economic data suggests that Europe continues to face growth headwinds.

Asia & Emerging Markets

In Asia, Japanese equity markets declined modestly amid growing concern over U.S.-Japan trade relations. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.61%, weighed down by news that U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods would rise to 25% starting August 1. While the delay allows room for negotiation, it adds uncertainty ahead of Japan’s Upper House elections. Domestically, Japan’s economic indicators were mixed: real wages dropped by 2.9% year over year in May — much worse than expected — raising concerns over the strength of the consumer recovery. Household spending, however, rose sharply by 4.7%, offering a glimmer of resilience.

In China, equities gained as worsening deflation sparked expectations of more aggressive policy stimulus. The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, while the Shanghai Composite added 1.09%. Producer prices fell by 3.6% in June, marking nearly three years of factory-gate deflation, while consumer prices ticked up just 0.1%. With demand still soft, investors are betting on fresh government support, particularly after President Xi Jinping’s recent pledges to tackle disorderly competition and boost industrial productivity.

Looking across global markets, muted responses to tariffs, persistent inflation divergence, and soft consumer data continue to define the macro backdrop — keeping central banks, investors, and policymakers on high alert.