Bas Kooijman
Silver eased on Tuesday, retreating from its recent highs as investors booked profits. Despite the pullback, sentiment remains broadly supportive amid ongoing political uncertainty in the US, underpinned by the government shutdown. The market is also supported by expectations of further monetary easing.
Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut in October, with a second cut anticipated by year-end. Focus turns to upcoming remarks by Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, which may offer further clarity on the policy outlook. The shutdown has heightened uncertainty around the Fed’s data-dependent approach, potentially reinforcing demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
Structural supply tightness continues to support prices. The Silver Institute projects a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025.
Investor positioning remains constructive. Silver-backed ETPs recorded 95 million ounces in net inflows during H1 2025, lifting total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces. Indian retail investment rose 7% YoY, while Europe showed signs of recovery from a low base. Looking ahead, with macro and fundamental drivers aligned, silver is likely to extend its overall bullish trend over the next sessions.
Kooijman is the CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A
