By Joseph Dahrieh

Crude oil might see increased volatility as market participants navigate the uncertainty surrounding recent global developments. The market reacted to the announcement of U.S. tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil and to the mounting concerns over the broader economic impact of escalating trade tensions, which threaten to weaken global demand.

In this regard, the uncertainty surrounding the potential reduction in Venezuelan oil exports could tighten supply in the short term to a certain extent. Similarly, sanctions on Iranian oil could contribute to a potentially tighter market. However, economic slowdown fears due to tariff-induced costs could continue to pressure crude prices.

Meanwhile, changes in OPEC+ crude production could affect the market. The organization is expected to increase oil output, which could further weigh on prices. However, the group’s efforts to address overproduction from certain members could provide a floor for prices.

Moreover, progress in ceasefire talks in Eastern Europe could facilitate an increase in Russian crude exports. The latter could further weigh on the market.

Dahrieh is Managing Principal at Tickmill