Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices eased on Tuesday as the U.S. projected steady demand at 20.5 million barrels per day through 2025 and higher domestic production. Brent crude fell 1.35% to $79.92 per barrel, while WTI dropped 1.67% to $77.50.
New U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports limited the drop, but analysts predict the actual impact may be smaller as Russia adapts. Adding to the uncertainty, China’s oil imports hit a 20-year low in 2024, excluding the pandemic era.
Australian Consumer Sentiment Declines Amid Financial Stress
Australian consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month in January, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index dropping 0.7% to 92.1. Although up 13.8% year-on-year, pessimism prevails as high mortgage rates overshadow tax cuts.
Family finances compared to a year ago plunged 7.8%, while the outlook for the next 12 months improved slightly by 1.1%. Spending is expected to stay subdued, easing inflation concerns and potentially opening the door for looser monetary policy.
U.S. Small-Business Optimism Hits Six-Year High in December
Small-business confidence surged in December, with the National Federation of Independent Business reporting a 3.4-point rise in its Optimism Index to 105.1, the highest since October 2018. This marks the second consecutive month the index exceeded its 51-year average of 98. Following the November election, 52% of owners anticipated economic improvement, the highest since 1983. However, consumer caution grows amid potential policy impacts from the incoming administration.
World Bank Suspends Disbursements To Gabon Over $27M Debt Arrears
The World Bank has halted funding to Gabon due to $27 million in debt arrears, according to Gabon’s public accounts ministry. The suspension stems from insufficient resource mobilization on international markets. Gabon, with three World Bank projects worth $214.5 million, is taking steps to clear the arrears. In July, the World Bank restricted Gabon’s loan and grant access when overdue payments hit $17 million. By November 2024, Gabon had paid $1.9 billion in debt.
China, India Shift to Middle East Oil; Nigeria Misses Out
India and China, major buyers of Russian oil, are shifting to Middle Eastern suppliers like the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq due to fears of supply gaps from new U.S. sanctions on Russia. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria is overlooked in this trade shift due to its declining output, which has fallen from over 2 million bpd in 2019 to an average of 1.5 million bpd in 2024, failing to meet OPEC quotas. Meanwhile, OPEC giants are expected to benefit from the sanctions, as surplus production helps stabilize global oil prices.
