Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices inched up on Friday—Brent at $67.77 and WTI at $65.52—but still posted a 12% weekly loss, their biggest since March 2023, as traders reacted to reports of an August output hike by OPEC+ and the easing of geopolitical tensions following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The conflict’s resolution erased earlier risk-driven gains, while signs of rising supply overshadowed supportive data like falling U.S. inventories, declining distillate stocks in Europe and Asia, and stronger Chinese demand for Iranian crude.
French Inflation Rises to 0.8% in June, Driven by Services and Easing Energy Deflation
French inflation rose unexpectedly in June, ending a trend of declining price growth, as service costs climbed and energy prices fell less sharply. Harmonised inflation stood at 0.8% year-on-year, up from May’s 0.6%—the lowest since December 2020—exceeding analyst expectations. Service prices rose 2.4%, while energy costs dropped 6.9%, easing from an 8% fall in May. Food inflation edged up to 1.4%, with manufactured goods flat at -0.2%. Despite the rise, France maintains one of the euro zone’s lowest inflation rates.
Canada’s Economy Contracts in April, Raising Odds of Rate Cut
Canada’s GDP shrank by 0.1% in April, driven by a sharp 0.6% decline in goods-producing sectors, particularly manufacturing and wholesale trade, which were hit hard by U.S. tariffs. This offset gains in services like finance and public administration. A preliminary estimate suggests another 0.1% drop in May, pointing to a weak second quarter. Manufacturing output plunged 1.9%—its steepest fall in four years—while wholesale trade also saw its biggest drop since June 2023. Economists now expect a possible interest rate cut in July, citing softening growth and signs of declining business activity.
Rwanda and DRC Seal U.S.-Brokered Peace Deal Targeting Troop Pullout, Stability
On Friday, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a peace agreement in Washington, brokered by the U.S. under former President Donald Trump. The deal calls for Rwanda to withdraw troops from eastern Congo within 90 days and for both countries to pursue economic integration.
Trump, calling the long-running conflict one of the worst, said the agreement would also grant the U.S. mineral rights in Congo. He warned of severe penalties for non-compliance, while both nations’ foreign ministers urged continued U.S. engagement to ensure the deal holds.
Dangote: Africa to End Fertiliser Imports Within 40 Months
Aliko Dangote announced that Africa will become self-sufficient in fertiliser production within 40 months, driven by a planned expansion of his $2.5 billion fertiliser plant near Lagos. Speaking at the Afreximbank meeting in Abuja, he said the goal is to surpass Qatar in urea production. Africa currently imports over 6 million metric tons of fertiliser annually, contributing to high foreign exchange costs. While analysts see bullish prospects, they warn of infrastructure challenges and cost risks. Dangote also revealed plans to list the fertiliser plant on the Nigerian stock exchange this year.
