Akintunde Oyedokun
Research Analyst
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday as the U.S. vowed continued strikes against Yemen’s Houthis, holding Iran accountable for their attacks on shipping. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $71.07 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.6% to $67.58. Chinese economic data also lifted sentiment, with retail sales growth improving and oil refining increasing by 2.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over OPEC+ production hikes balanced market pressures.
Bank of England Set to Hold Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.5% on Thursday, with gradual adjustments ahead. Analysts predict the next cut in May, followed by reductions in August and November. Economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs and mixed UK data have raised concerns about inflation, with global markets losing over $5 trillion while Germany’s investment plan boosts manufacturers. Despite a recent UK economic contraction, inflation expectations have increased. The Monetary Policy Committee is likely to maintain rates with a 7-2 vote, awaiting further data and upcoming fiscal measures.
U.S. Inventory Growth Aligns With Expectations But Weighs On GDP
U.S. business inventories rose 2.3% year-over-year in January, matching forecasts. While retail inventories remained flat, motor vehicle stocks dropped 1.0%. Wholesale inventories grew 0.8%, and manufacturing stocks edged up 0.1%. Inventories, the most volatile component of U.S. GDP, had declined in Q4 due to strong consumer demand. This contraction limited GDP growth to 2.3%. Estimates for Q1 GDP range from a 2.4% decline to 1.3% growth. Meanwhile, U.S. business sales fell 0.8% in January, increasing the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.37 months.
Thungela’s Profit Falls 29% In 2024 As Coal Prices Weaken
Thungela Resources reported a 29% drop in 2024 profit to 3.544 billion rand ($194.79 million) due to lower thermal coal prices and subdued European demand. Despite this, the company exceeded production expectations, mining 13.6 million tons in South Africa, supported by better rail logistics. Its Australian Ensham mine added 4.1 million tons. Thungela declared a final dividend of 11 rand per share, bringing the total for 2024 to 13 rand, down from 20 rand in 2023.
Nigeria’s Inflation Drops To 23.18% In February Post-CPI Rebasing
Nigeria’s annual inflation eased to 23.18% in February, down from 31.7% a year earlier, following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2024, reflecting changes in consumption patterns. Food inflation also dropped to 23.51% from 26.08% in January, contributing to the overall decline. This sharp fall comes after December’s 34.80%, the highest in 28 years, driven by President Bola Tinubu’s actions to remove costly subsidies and devalue the naira. The central bank, in its first rate-setting meeting of the year, left its key interest rate at 27.5%, citing the continued decrease in inflation.
