Tax Policy Uncertainty, Renewed Buying Interest Induce High Volatility, Sell Pressure On Nigeria’s Bourse
Trading activities on the Nigerian Exchange extended its three straight weeks of bear transition to reflect sharp down and reflexive rebound in the midst of external threat and the government’s unclear tax which triggered the exit of foreign portfolio investors, amid panic selling of position by domestic investors. These created opportunities for smart traders to buy the dip before reversing up after extracting a promise to review the CGT of which policy makers are yet to provide the needed direction and proper clarity.
The week’s performance was mixed. revealing with panic selloffs and position taking ahead of the consumer price index report for October, and outcome of next week’s Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy meeting amid the outpouring of positive macroeconomic data.
Already, the CBN’s Purchasing Manager index report for October, although late, indicates eleven consecutive months of expansion in the country’s business or economic activities, with the composite PMI rising to 55.4 points, 1.4 index pointers higher than that of September. This was driven by broad-based gains across the Industry, Services, and Agriculture sectors. For context, the PMI is a diffusion index derived from survey responses regarding the direction of change in key monthly business activity variables. A reading above 50.0 index points signals expansion in economic activities, below 50.0 indicates contraction, and exactly 50.0 reflects no change. Notably, the PMI is a leading economic indicator based on shifts in sentiment about the economy.
NGXASI Daily Chart
The Nigerian stock market opened the second week of November under pressure, tracking a bearish trend on Monday as selling dominated. The All-Share Index (ASI) dipped 0.50% to 148,781.90, reducing market capitalization by ₦471.99 billion to ₦94.53 trillion and pulling the year-to-date return to 44.55%. Losers outnumbered gainers 39 to 13, representing a ratio of 3:1 with NAHCO, UBA, PZ, ETI, and UNILEVER as major decliners. ASOSAVINGS led the gainers, LINKASSURE topped the losers, ACCESSCORP posted the highest trading volume, while DANGCEM recorded the largest value traded.
Tuesday saw a sharp sell-off, as 59 stocks fell against just four gainers. The ASI plunged 5.01% to 141,327.30, erasing ₦4.64 trillion in market value to close at ₦89.88 trillion and lowering the YTD return to 37.31%. Heavy losses were seen in BUACEMENT, DANGCEM, OANDO, MTNN, and TRANSCORP. NCR led the small group of gainers, ACADEMY topped the losers, FIRSTHOLDCO had the highest trading volume, and GEREGU recorded the largest value traded. At this session market reacted to tax policy uncertainty of the government and US threat of attacking Nigerian terrorist groups after designating the nation as a country of particular concern (CPC)
The market rebounded at midweek, with the ASI climbing 2.88% to 145,403.83 basis points, just as ₦2.59 trillion was added to market capitalization which closed at ₦92.48 trillion, lifting YTD return to 41.27%. The buying interest in OANDO, ACCESSCORP, PZ, NB, and ZENITHBANK fuelled the recovery. ROYALEX led the day’s gainers, VITAFOAM was the top loser, GTCO recorded the highest volume, and ARADEL posted the largest value traded. This was attributed to the comments from economic managers like minster of finance and CBN Governor, saying that CGT will be review after it implementation in 2026 triggered panic selloffs in the market.
Thursday’s session continued the rally, with the ASI gaining 1.08% to close at 146,981.17bps. Market capitalization rose by ₦1 trillion to ₦93.48 trillion, pushing the YTD return to 42.80%. Key drivers included CUSTODIAN, OANDO, NAHCO, NCR, and ZENITHBANK. CUSTODIAN and LINKASSURE led the gainers, AUSTINLAZ topped the losers, WEMABANK had the highest volume, and ZENITHBANK the largest value traded.
Friday saw a mild uptick as the ASI inched up 0.02% to 147,013.59, lifting market capitalization slightly to ₦93.50 trillion and the YTD return to 42.83%. Gains were supported by NCR, BUACEMENT, NAHCO, and CUSTODIAN. PRESTIGE led the gainers, UNIONDICON was the top loser, while CORNERST recorded the highest volume and value traded.
Overall, market activity surged for the week as investors exchanged 7.33 billion shares worth ₦156.43 billion in 134,383 deals, a sharp rise from just 3.58 billion shares valued at ₦107.01 billion traded in the previous week. The Financial Services sector dominated proceedings, accounting for nearly 89% of total volume and over half of total value, while Consumer Goods and Services sectors followed at a distance. Cornerstone Insurance, Access Holdings, and Zenith Bank led trading activity, jointly contributed 64.87% of total market volume and 26.29% of total value.
Despite the week’s activity, the market ended slightly lower. The NGX All-Share Index dropped 1.68% to 147,013.59, and market capitalization fell 1.58% to ₦93.50 trillion. Most sector indices closed weaker, though select indices—including NGX CG, Banking, Pension, Insurance, AFR Div. Yield, AFR Bank Value, MERI Growth, MERI Value, Consumer Goods, Growth, and Sovereign Bond—posted modest gains of between 0.12% and 2.42%.
NGXASI Weekly Index Action
Week-to-date, the All-Share Index decreased by 1.68%, with the NGX-30 falling by 1.73%. The Banking Index, however, posted a 1.26% gain, the Pension, Insurance and Consumer Goods Indexes increased by 0.29%, 2.42% and 0.46% respectively. Oil and Gas Index decreased by 0.85%. On a year-to-date basis, the All-Share Index is up 42.83%, while the NGX-30 is up 41.32%, Banking Index, 31.64%; Pension. 49.15%; Insurance, 62.34%, and the Consumer Goods Index, 99.83%. However, the Oil and Gas Index lost 1.38%. Market breadth is positive, with 48 stocks advanced and 45 declined.
NCR Nigeria Plc
Leading the top gainers chart is NCR Nigeria Plc, a leading technology and financial solutions company in Nigeria. It gained 32.30% WoW, rising from ₦19.35 to ₦25.60 per share. ASO Savings and Loans followed with a 14.44% growth to ₦1.03 each. Champion Breweries advanced 11.54% to ₦14.50; International Energy Insurance gained 11.48%, closing at ₦2.72, while Secure Electronic Technology climbed 10.67% to ₦0.83.
Union Dicon Salt Chart
Union Dicon Salt, a company engaged in the production, packaging, and distribution of salt and related products for both domestic and industrial use, posted the biggest loss after plunging 18.71% to ₦6.30 per unit; Austin Laz lost 18.62% closing at ₦2.36, while Multiverse Mining suffered a 14.47% decline to ₦10.05 each. Dangote Cement shed 10% to close at ₦594.00, same as Academy Press which closed at ₦6.75 each.
Technical Outlook:
Short-term technical indicators suggest the market is consolidating after a sharp sell-off earlier in the week. The ASI currently hovers near the 147,000 support-turned-resistance level, while the 50-day moving average at 145,000 points continue to act as a pivot for further recovery. Momentum oscillators such as the MACD show signs of stabilization, implying a potential for selective sector rallies, especially in Banking, Consumer Goods, and Insurance stocks. However, investor sentiment remains fragile due to lingering concerns over the unsettling Capital Gains Tax, the impact of which is being made worse by the global macroeconomic pressures.
Trending in the Economy: Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council has approved over ₦400 billion for fresh and ongoing road projects aimed at modernizing the country’s transport system. The approvals cover major routes such as the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway (₦43bn), Mushin–Apapa Oshodi Expressway (₦19bn), and the ambitious Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway. Older roads, including Ilorin–Omu Aran–Egba and parts of the East–West Road, were also reviewed. Works Minister, Dave Umahi, said the projects will adopt tougher concrete pavements and improved designs to address long-standing infrastructure gaps.
The country’s Senate has asked Finance Minister, Wale Edun, to reconsider the new 30% Capital Gains Tax on share sales above ₦150 million, after the announcement sparked panic selling that wiped out roughly ₦2 trillion from the stock market. Senator Osita Izunaso said the sudden increase—part of the Nigerian Tax Act 2025, implementation of which is scheduled to begin in January 2026—has unsettled investors. Government officials clarified that profits made before 2026 will not be taxed, while Edun assured lawmakers that the rollout will be gradual, and follow wide consultation.
Global Market and Oil: Global equities ended the week on a soft note as fresh hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials cooled expectations for a December rate cut. MSCI’s world index slipped, and U.S. markets wrapped up Friday quietly even as Treasury yields edged higher.
The S&P 500 recovered from early weakness thanks to bargain hunters, following sharp declines across Asia and Europe. UK markets were also under pressure amid renewed anxiety over next week’s budget.
Fed officials continued to push back against further easing. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid flagged broad inflation pressures, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan again voiced resistance to another cut. With the U.S. still lacking official data due to the government shutdown, traders slashed the odds of a December cut to about 46%, down from nearly 67% the previous week.
Tech stocks helped stabilize sentiment. Nvidia rose 1.8%, and the small-cap S&P 600 tech index also finished slightly higher. Investors are turning cautious ahead of a heavy earnings calendar featuring major retailers and Nvidia, which could reveal more about consumer spending and AI demand.
The Dow fell 0.65% on Friday but still gained for the week. The S&P 500 slipped marginally yet closed slightly higher for the week, while the Nasdaq inched up 0.13% but posted a weekly decline. MSCI’s global index dropped 0.44%.
European shares also retreated about 1%, and Asian equities ended sharply lower earlier in the day.
Treasury yields reversed early declines, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.146% and the 2-year climbing to 3.608%. The dollar strengthened mildly against the euro, was steady versus the yen, and rose against sterling after signs the UK may raise income taxes in the upcoming budget.
Bitcoin tumbled nearly 4%, and Ethereum eased to $3,164. Oil prices settled firmly higher after a Ukrainian drone strike forced the suspension of exports at Russia’s Novorossiisk port. U.S. crude closed at $60.09 a barrel, while Brent finished at $64.39 per barrel.
